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- CARA is a risk assessment tool developed to model the concentration of viruses in enclosed spaces, in order to inform space-management decisions.
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- CARA models the concentration profile of virions in enclosed spaces with clear and intuitive graphs.
- The user can set a number of parameters, including room volume, exposure time, activity type, mask-wearing and ventilation.
- The report generated indicates how to avoid exceeding critical concentrations and chains of airborne transmission in spaces such as individual offices, meeting rooms and labs.
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- The risk assessment tool simulates the long-range airborne spread SARS-CoV-2 virus in a finite volume, assuming a homogenous mixture, and estimates the risk of COVID-19 airborne transmission therein.
- The results DO NOT include short-range airborne exposure (where the physical distance is a significant factor) nor the other known modes of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
- Hence, the output from this model is only valid when the other recommended public health & safety instructions are observed, such as adequate physical distancing, good hand hygiene and other barrier measures.
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- The model used is based on scientific publications relating to airborne transmission of infectious diseases, dose-response exposures and aerosol science, as of February 2021.
- It can be used to compare the effectiveness of different airborne-related risk mitigation measures.
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- Note that this model applies a deterministic approach, i.e., it is assumed at least one person is infected and shedding viruses into the simulated volume.
- Nonetheless, it is also important to understand that the absolute risk of infection is uncertain, as it will depend on the probability that someone infected attends the event.
- The model is most useful for comparing the impact and effectiveness of different mitigation measures such as ventilation, filtration, exposure time, physical activity and
- the size of the room, only considering long-range airborne transmission of COVID-19 in indoor settings.
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- This tool is designed to be informative, allowing the user to adapt different settings and model the relative impact on the estimated infection probabilities.
- The objective is to facilitate targeted decision-making and investment through comparisons, rather than a singular determination of absolute risk.
- While the SARS-CoV-2 virus is in circulation among the population, the notion of 'zero risk' or 'completely safe scenario' does not exist.
- Each event modelled is unique, and the results generated therein are only as accurate as the inputs and assumptions.
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- CARA has not undergone review, approval or certification by competent authorities, and as a result, it cannot be considered
- as a fully endorsed and reliable tool, namely in the assessment of potential viral emissions from infected hosts to be modelled.
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