pingu_98/cara
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull requests Projects Releases Packages Wiki Activity Actions

Modified total probability rule formula

Browse source
This commit is contained in:
Luis Aleixo 2022-10-05 17:33:12 +02:00
parent 7a9401a6fa
commit f7b63decc3
2 changed files with 9 additions and 7 deletions
Show stats Download patch file Download diff file Expand all files Collapse all files

12
caimira/models.py
View file

@ -439,7 +439,7 @@ class Virus:
#: Pre-populated examples of Viruses.
types: typing.ClassVar[typing.Dict[str, "Virus"]]
#: Number of incubation days
#: Number of days the infector is contagious
infectiousness_days: int = 14
def halflife(self, humidity: _VectorisedFloat, inside_temp: _VectorisedFloat) -> _VectorisedFloat:
@ -1482,10 +1482,12 @@ class ExposureModel:
exposure_model = nested_replace(
self, {'concentration_model.infected.number': num_infected}
)
prob_exposed_occupant = exposure_model.infection_probability().mean() / 100
# By means of a Binomial Distribution
sum_probability += (prob_exposed_occupant *
self.geographical_data.probability_meet_infected_person(self.concentration_model.infected.virus, self.exposed.number, num_infected))
prob_ind = exposure_model.infection_probability().mean() / 100
exposed_ind = self.exposed.number
# By means of the total probability rule
prob_at_least_one_infected = 1 - (1 - prob_ind)**(exposed_ind-1)
sum_probability += (prob_at_least_one_infected *
self.geographical_data.probability_meet_infected_person(self.concentration_model.infected.virus, exposed_ind, num_infected))
return sum_probability * 100
else:
return 0

4
caimira/tests/models/test_exposure_model.py
View file

@ -276,9 +276,9 @@ def test_prob_meet_infected_person(pop, cases, AB, exposed, infected, prob_meet_
@pytest.mark.parametrize(
"population, cm, pop, cases, AB, probabilistic_exposure_probability",[
[populations[1], known_concentrations(lambda t: 36.),
100000, 68, 5, 27.537276],
100000, 68, 5, 38.594805],
[populations[0], known_concentrations(lambda t: 36.),
100000, 68, 5, 23.540145],
100000, 121, 2, 29.138216],
])
def test_probabilistic_exposure_probability(population, cm,
pop, AB, cases, probabilistic_exposure_probability):