cara/caimira/tests/test_conditional_probability.py

77 lines
2.9 KiB
Python

import numpy as np
import pytest
from retry import retry
import caimira.monte_carlo as mc
from caimira import models
from caimira.dataclass_utils import nested_replace
from caimira.apps.calculator import report_generator
from caimira.monte_carlo.data import activity_distributions, virus_distributions, expiration_distributions
@pytest.fixture
def baseline_exposure_model():
concentration_mc = mc.ConcentrationModel(
room=models.Room(volume=50, inside_temp=models.PiecewiseConstant((0., 24.), (298,)), humidity=0.5),
ventilation=models.MultipleVentilation(
ventilations=(
models.AirChange(active=models.PeriodicInterval(period=120, duration=120), air_exch=0.25),
)
),
infected=mc.InfectedPopulation(
number=1,
presence=mc.SpecificInterval(present_times=((0, 3.5), (4.5, 9))),
virus=virus_distributions['SARS_CoV_2_DELTA'],
mask=models.Mask.types['No mask'],
activity=activity_distributions['Seated'],
expiration=expiration_distributions['Breathing'],
host_immunity=0.,
),
evaporation_factor=0.3,
)
return mc.ExposureModel(
concentration_model=concentration_mc,
short_range=(),
exposed=mc.Population(
number=3,
presence=mc.SpecificInterval(present_times=((0, 3.5), (4.5, 9))),
activity=activity_distributions['Seated'],
mask=models.Mask.types['No mask'],
host_immunity=0.,
),
geographical_data=models.Cases(),
)
@retry(tries=2)
def test_conditional_prob_inf_given_vl_dist(baseline_exposure_model):
viral_loads = np.array([3., 5., 7., 9.,])
mc_model: models.ExposureModel = baseline_exposure_model.build_model(1_000_000)
expected_pi_means = []
expected_lower_percentiles = []
expected_upper_percentiles = []
for vl in viral_loads:
model_vl: models.ExposureModel = nested_replace(
mc_model, {
'concentration_model.infected.virus.viral_load_in_sputum' : 10**vl,
}
)
pi = model_vl.infection_probability()/100
expected_pi_means.append(np.mean(pi))
expected_lower_percentiles.append(np.quantile(pi, 0.05))
expected_upper_percentiles.append(np.quantile(pi, 0.95))
infection_probability = mc_model.infection_probability() / 100
specific_vl = np.log10(mc_model.concentration_model.infected.virus.viral_load_in_sputum)
step = 8/100
actual_pi_means, actual_lower_percentiles, actual_upper_percentiles = (
report_generator.conditional_prob_inf_given_vl_dist(infection_probability, viral_loads, specific_vl, step)
)
assert np.allclose(actual_pi_means, expected_pi_means, atol=0.001)
assert np.allclose(actual_lower_percentiles, expected_lower_percentiles, atol=0.001)
assert np.allclose(actual_upper_percentiles, expected_upper_percentiles, atol=0.001)