cosmicraysandearthquakes/paper/main.bbl

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Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper 3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d) p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal. 3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without preprocessing circularity. 3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold); kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag. 3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d) unchanged — missing data is not a confound. 3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins; r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical). 3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d) changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound. 3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive (0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d) — phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor. Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul), kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values), coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan. Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation, nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
\begin{thebibliography}{21}
\providecommand{\natexlab}[1]{#1}
\providecommand{\url}[1]{\texttt{#1}}
\expandafter\ifx\csname urlstyle\endcsname\relax
\providecommand{\doi}[1]{doi: #1}\else
\providecommand{\doi}{doi: \begingroup \urlstyle{rm}\Url}\fi
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Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper 3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d) p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal. 3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without preprocessing circularity. 3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold); kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag. 3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d) unchanged — missing data is not a confound. 3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins; r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical). 3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d) changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound. 3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive (0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d) — phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor. Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul), kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values), coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan. Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation, nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
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Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper 3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d) p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal. 3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without preprocessing circularity. 3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold); kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag. 3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d) unchanged — missing data is not a confound. 3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins; r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical). 3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d) changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound. 3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive (0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d) — phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor. Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul), kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values), coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan. Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation, nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
\bibitem[Homola et~al.(2022)]{Homola2023}
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\newblock Indication of correlation between cosmic-ray flux and global
Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper 3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d) p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal. 3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without preprocessing circularity. 3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold); kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag. 3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d) unchanged — missing data is not a confound. 3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins; r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical). 3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d) changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound. 3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive (0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d) — phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor. Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul), kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values), coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan. Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation, nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
seismicity, 2022.
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2981--2987, 1977.
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Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper 3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d) p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal. 3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without preprocessing circularity. 3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold); kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag. 3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d) unchanged — missing data is not a confound. 3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins; r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical). 3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d) changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound. 3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive (0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d) — phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor. Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul), kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values), coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan. Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation, nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
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