Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper
3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.
3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
preprocessing circularity.
3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.
3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
unchanged — missing data is not a confound.
3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).
3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.
3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
(0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
— phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.
Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.
Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
|
|
|
\begin{thebibliography}{21}
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
\providecommand{\natexlab}[1]{#1}
|
|
|
|
|
\providecommand{\url}[1]{\texttt{#1}}
|
|
|
|
|
\expandafter\ifx\csname urlstyle\endcsname\relax
|
|
|
|
|
\providecommand{\doi}[1]{doi: #1}\else
|
|
|
|
|
\providecommand{\doi}{doi: \begingroup \urlstyle{rm}\Url}\fi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Aplin(2006)]{Aplin2005}
|
|
|
|
|
Karen~L. Aplin.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Atmospheric electrification in the solar system.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Surveys in Geophysics}, 27\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 63--108,
|
|
|
|
|
2006.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1007/s10712-005-0642-9}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fix seismic metric + robustness checks (issues 2a–2d)
2a — Replace physically invalid summed-Mw seismic metric with correct
log10(ΣE) where E=10^(1.5·Mw+4.8) J (Kanamori 1977). Updates
usgs.py (new seismic_energy_per_bin()), scripts 02/07/08.
Impact: r(+15d) raw 0.310→0.081, peak r 0.469→0.139; sinusoidal
BF 27.5→0.75 (constant model now preferred).
2b — HP λ derivation: λ_5 = 1600×(365/5)^4 ≈ 4.54×10^10 (Ravn & Uhlig
2002 rescaling); detrend robustness figure (HP/Butterworth/rolling
mean), all show r(+15d)<0.04.
2c — Neff comparison: Bartlett 2923, Bretherton 769, Monte Carlo 594;
MC 95% CI [-0.002, +0.158] straddles zero → raw r not significant
under most conservative estimate.
2d — Magnitude threshold (M≥4.5/5.0/6.0): r(+15d) range 0.050–0.079
(Δ=0.029 < 0.05), peak stable at τ=−525 d; no aftershock bias.
Paper (main.tex, refs.bib): update all numbers, add Kanamori/Bartlett/
Ravn–Uhlig refs, new sections for 2b–2d with figures and Neff table.
PDF recompiled (27 pages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 12:49:54 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Bartlett(1946)]{Bartlett1946}
|
|
|
|
|
M.~S. Bartlett.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock On the theoretical specification and sampling properties of
|
|
|
|
|
autocorrelated time-series.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Supplement)},
|
|
|
|
|
8\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 27--41, 1946.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.2307/2983611}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Benjamini and Hochberg(1995)]{Benjamini1995}
|
|
|
|
|
Yoav Benjamini and Yosef Hochberg.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful
|
|
|
|
|
approach to multiple testing.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B},
|
|
|
|
|
57\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 289--300, 1995.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Bretherton et~al.(1999)Bretherton, Widmann, Dymnikov, Wallace, and
|
|
|
|
|
Blade]{Bretherton1999}
|
|
|
|
|
Christopher~S. Bretherton, Martin Widmann, Valentin~P. Dymnikov, John~M.
|
|
|
|
|
Wallace, and Ileana Blade.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying
|
|
|
|
|
field.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of Climate}, 12\penalty0 (7):\penalty0 1990--2009,
|
|
|
|
|
1999.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Cleveland et~al.(1990)Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae, and
|
|
|
|
|
Terpenning]{Cleveland1990}
|
|
|
|
|
Robert~B. Cleveland, William~S. Cleveland, Jean~E. McRae, and Irma Terpenning.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock {STL}: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on {LOESS}.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of Official Statistics}, 6\penalty0 (1):\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
3--73, 1990.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper
3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.
3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
preprocessing circularity.
3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.
3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
unchanged — missing data is not a confound.
3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).
3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.
3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
(0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
— phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.
Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.
Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Gardner and Knopoff(1974)]{GardnerKnopoff1974}
|
|
|
|
|
J.~K. Gardner and Leon Knopoff.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern {California}, with
|
|
|
|
|
aftershocks removed, {Poissonian}?
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, 64\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
(5):\penalty0 1363--1367, 1974.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1785/BSSA0640051363}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Hodrick and Prescott(1997)]{HP1997}
|
|
|
|
|
Robert~J. Hodrick and Edward~C. Prescott.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Postwar {U.S.} business cycles: an empirical investigation.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, 29\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
(1):\penalty0 1--16, 1997.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.2307/2953682}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper
3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.
3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
preprocessing circularity.
3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.
3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
unchanged — missing data is not a confound.
3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).
3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.
3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
(0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
— phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.
Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.
Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Homola et~al.(2022)]{Homola2023}
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
Piotr Homola et~al.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Indication of correlation between cosmic-ray flux and global
|
Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper
3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.
3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
preprocessing circularity.
3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.
3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
unchanged — missing data is not a confound.
3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).
3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.
3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
(0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
— phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.
Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.
Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
|
|
|
seismicity, 2022.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock URL \url{https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.12310}.
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Fix seismic metric + robustness checks (issues 2a–2d)
2a — Replace physically invalid summed-Mw seismic metric with correct
log10(ΣE) where E=10^(1.5·Mw+4.8) J (Kanamori 1977). Updates
usgs.py (new seismic_energy_per_bin()), scripts 02/07/08.
Impact: r(+15d) raw 0.310→0.081, peak r 0.469→0.139; sinusoidal
BF 27.5→0.75 (constant model now preferred).
2b — HP λ derivation: λ_5 = 1600×(365/5)^4 ≈ 4.54×10^10 (Ravn & Uhlig
2002 rescaling); detrend robustness figure (HP/Butterworth/rolling
mean), all show r(+15d)<0.04.
2c — Neff comparison: Bartlett 2923, Bretherton 769, Monte Carlo 594;
MC 95% CI [-0.002, +0.158] straddles zero → raw r not significant
under most conservative estimate.
2d — Magnitude threshold (M≥4.5/5.0/6.0): r(+15d) range 0.050–0.079
(Δ=0.029 < 0.05), peak stable at τ=−525 d; no aftershock bias.
Paper (main.tex, refs.bib): update all numbers, add Kanamori/Bartlett/
Ravn–Uhlig refs, new sections for 2b–2d with figures and Neff table.
PDF recompiled (27 pages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 12:49:54 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Kanamori(1977)]{Kanamori1977}
|
|
|
|
|
Hiroo Kanamori.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock The energy release in great earthquakes.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of Geophysical Research}, 82\penalty0 (20):\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
2981--2987, 1977.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1029/JB082i020p02981}.
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper
3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.
3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
preprocessing circularity.
3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.
3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
unchanged — missing data is not a confound.
3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).
3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.
3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
(0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
— phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.
Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.
Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 18:43:08 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Kraskov et~al.(2004)Kraskov, St{\"o}gbauer, and
|
|
|
|
|
Grassberger]{Kraskov2004}
|
|
|
|
|
Alexander Kraskov, Harald St{\"o}gbauer, and Peter Grassberger.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Estimating mutual information.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Physical Review E}, 69\penalty0 (6):\penalty0 066138, 2004.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066138}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Odintsov et~al.(2006)Odintsov, Boyarchuk, Georgieva, Kirov, and
|
|
|
|
|
Atanasov]{Odintsov2006}
|
|
|
|
|
Stanislav Odintsov, Kirill Boyarchuk, Katya Georgieva, Boian Kirov, and Dimitar
|
|
|
|
|
Atanasov.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Long-period trends in global seismic and geomagnetic activity and
|
|
|
|
|
their relation to solar activity.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Physics and Chemistry of the Earth}, 31\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
(1--3):\penalty0 88--93, 2006.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1016/j.pce.2005.03.004}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Potgieter(2013)]{Potgieter2013}
|
|
|
|
|
Marius~S. Potgieter.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Solar modulation of cosmic rays.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Living Reviews in Solar Physics}, 10\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 3,
|
|
|
|
|
2013.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.12942/lrsp-2013-3}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Pulinets and Boyarchuk(2004)]{Pulinets2004}
|
|
|
|
|
Sergey Pulinets and Kirill Boyarchuk.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Springer}, 2004.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fix seismic metric + robustness checks (issues 2a–2d)
2a — Replace physically invalid summed-Mw seismic metric with correct
log10(ΣE) where E=10^(1.5·Mw+4.8) J (Kanamori 1977). Updates
usgs.py (new seismic_energy_per_bin()), scripts 02/07/08.
Impact: r(+15d) raw 0.310→0.081, peak r 0.469→0.139; sinusoidal
BF 27.5→0.75 (constant model now preferred).
2b — HP λ derivation: λ_5 = 1600×(365/5)^4 ≈ 4.54×10^10 (Ravn & Uhlig
2002 rescaling); detrend robustness figure (HP/Butterworth/rolling
mean), all show r(+15d)<0.04.
2c — Neff comparison: Bartlett 2923, Bretherton 769, Monte Carlo 594;
MC 95% CI [-0.002, +0.158] straddles zero → raw r not significant
under most conservative estimate.
2d — Magnitude threshold (M≥4.5/5.0/6.0): r(+15d) range 0.050–0.079
(Δ=0.029 < 0.05), peak stable at τ=−525 d; no aftershock bias.
Paper (main.tex, refs.bib): update all numbers, add Kanamori/Bartlett/
Ravn–Uhlig refs, new sections for 2b–2d with figures and Neff table.
PDF recompiled (27 pages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 12:49:54 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Ravn and Uhlig(2002)]{RahnUhlig2002}
|
|
|
|
|
Morten~O. Ravn and Harald Uhlig.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock On adjusting the {Hodrick--Prescott} filter for the frequency of
|
|
|
|
|
observations.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Review of Economics and Statistics}, 84\penalty0 (2):\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
371--376, 2002.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1162/003465302317411604}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
|
|
|
\bibitem[Schreiber and Schmitz(2000)]{Schreiber2000}
|
|
|
|
|
Thomas Schreiber and Andreas Schmitz.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Surrogate time series.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena}, 142\penalty0 (3--4):\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
346--382, 2000.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1016/S0167-2789(00)00043-9}.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[{SILSO World Data Center}(2024)]{SIDC2024}
|
|
|
|
|
{SILSO World Data Center}.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock The international sunspot number.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.
|
|
|
|
|
\url{https://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles}, 2024.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Stoupel(1990)]{Stoupel1990}
|
|
|
|
|
Eliyahu Stoupel.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock Relationship between solar and seismic activity.
|
|
|
|
|
\newblock \emph{International Journal of Biometeorology}, 34\penalty0
|
|
|
|
|
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\end{thebibliography}
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