2026-04-24 05:51:30 +00:00
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@article{Homola2023,
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author = {Homola, Piotr and others},
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title = {Indication of Correlation between Cosmic-Ray Flux and
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Global Seismicity},
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journal = {Remote Sensing},
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year = {2023},
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volume = {15},
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number = {1},
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pages = {200},
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doi = {10.3390/rs15010200},
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}
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@article{Bretherton1999,
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author = {Bretherton, Christopher S. and Widmann, Martin and
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Dymnikov, Valentin P. and Wallace, John M. and Blade, Ileana},
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title = {The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a
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time-varying field},
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}
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@article{Theiler1992,
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author = {Theiler, James and Eubank, Stephen and Longtin, Andr{\'e} and
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Galdrikian, Bryan and Farmer, J. Doyne},
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title = {Testing for nonlinearity in time series: the method of
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surrogate data},
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}
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@article{Schreiber2000,
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author = {Schreiber, Thomas and Schmitz, Andreas},
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title = {Surrogate time series},
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doi = {10.1016/S0167-2789(00)00043-9},
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}
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@article{Benjamini1995,
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author = {Benjamini, Yoav and Hochberg, Yosef},
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title = {Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful
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approach to multiple testing},
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journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B},
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}
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@article{HP1997,
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author = {Hodrick, Robert J. and Prescott, Edward C.},
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title = {Postwar {U.S.} business cycles: an empirical investigation},
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journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking},
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doi = {10.2307/2953682},
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}
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@article{Cleveland1990,
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author = {Cleveland, Robert B. and Cleveland, William S. and
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McRae, Jean E. and Terpenning, Irma},
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title = {{STL}: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on {LOESS}},
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journal = {Journal of Official Statistics},
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}
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@article{Potgieter2013,
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author = {Potgieter, Marius S.},
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title = {Solar modulation of cosmic rays},
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journal = {Living Reviews in Solar Physics},
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year = {2013},
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volume = {10},
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number = {1},
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doi = {10.12942/lrsp-2013-3},
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}
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@article{Odintsov2006,
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author = {Odintsov, Stanislav and Boyarchuk, Kirill and Georgieva, Katya and
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Kirov, Boian and Atanasov, Dimitar},
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title = {Long-period trends in global seismic and geomagnetic activity and
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their relation to solar activity},
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journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth},
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year = {2006},
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volume = {31},
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number = {1--3},
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pages = {88--93},
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doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2005.03.004},
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}
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@article{Tavares2011,
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author = {Tavares, Mario and Azevedo, Angelo},
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title = {Influences of solar cycles on earthquakes},
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journal = {Pattern Recognition in Physics},
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year = {2011},
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volume = {1},
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number = {1},
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pages = {1--11},
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}
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@article{Stoupel1990,
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author = {Stoupel, Eliyahu},
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title = {Relationship between solar and seismic activity},
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journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
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number = {4},
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doi = {10.1007/BF01049646},
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}
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@article{Urata2018,
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author = {Urata, Naoyuki and Tanimoto, Toshiro},
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title = {Correlation between cosmic rays and seismicity: a case study
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in {Japan}},
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journal = {Earth, Planets and Space},
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year = {2018},
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volume = {70},
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number = {1},
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doi = {10.1186/s40623-018-0826-5},
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}
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@article{Pulinets2004,
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author = {Pulinets, Sergey and Boyarchuk, Kirill},
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title = {Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes},
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journal = {Springer},
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year = {2004},
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}
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@book{Jeffreys1961,
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author = {Jeffreys, Harold},
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title = {Theory of Probability},
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edition = {3rd},
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publisher = {Oxford University Press},
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year = {1961},
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}
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@article{Aplin2005,
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author = {Aplin, Karen L.},
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title = {Atmospheric electrification in the solar system},
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journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
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year = {2006},
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volume = {27},
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number = {1},
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pages = {63--108},
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doi = {10.1007/s10712-005-0642-9},
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}
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@misc{USGS2024,
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author = {{USGS Earthquake Hazards Program}},
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title = {Earthquake catalogue via {FDSN} web service},
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year = {2024},
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howpublished = {\url{https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/}},
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}
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@misc{SIDC2024,
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author = {{SILSO World Data Center}},
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title = {The International Sunspot Number},
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year = {2024},
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howpublished = {Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.
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\url{https://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles}},
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}
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@misc{NMDB2024,
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author = {{NMDB Consortium}},
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title = {Neutron Monitor Database},
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year = {2024},
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howpublished = {\url{https://www.nmdb.eu}},
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}
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Fix seismic metric + robustness checks (issues 2a–2d)
2a — Replace physically invalid summed-Mw seismic metric with correct
log10(ΣE) where E=10^(1.5·Mw+4.8) J (Kanamori 1977). Updates
usgs.py (new seismic_energy_per_bin()), scripts 02/07/08.
Impact: r(+15d) raw 0.310→0.081, peak r 0.469→0.139; sinusoidal
BF 27.5→0.75 (constant model now preferred).
2b — HP λ derivation: λ_5 = 1600×(365/5)^4 ≈ 4.54×10^10 (Ravn & Uhlig
2002 rescaling); detrend robustness figure (HP/Butterworth/rolling
mean), all show r(+15d)<0.04.
2c — Neff comparison: Bartlett 2923, Bretherton 769, Monte Carlo 594;
MC 95% CI [-0.002, +0.158] straddles zero → raw r not significant
under most conservative estimate.
2d — Magnitude threshold (M≥4.5/5.0/6.0): r(+15d) range 0.050–0.079
(Δ=0.029 < 0.05), peak stable at τ=−525 d; no aftershock bias.
Paper (main.tex, refs.bib): update all numbers, add Kanamori/Bartlett/
Ravn–Uhlig refs, new sections for 2b–2d with figures and Neff table.
PDF recompiled (27 pages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 12:49:54 +00:00
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@article{Kanamori1977,
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author = {Kanamori, Hiroo},
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title = {The energy release in great earthquakes},
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journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
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year = {1977},
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volume = {82},
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number = {20},
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pages = {2981--2987},
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doi = {10.1029/JB082i020p02981},
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}
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@article{Bartlett1946,
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author = {Bartlett, M. S.},
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title = {On the theoretical specification and sampling properties of
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autocorrelated time-series},
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journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Supplement)},
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year = {1946},
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volume = {8},
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number = {1},
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pages = {27--41},
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doi = {10.2307/2983611},
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}
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@article{RahnUhlig2002,
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author = {Ravn, Morten O. and Uhlig, Harald},
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title = {On adjusting the {Hodrick--Prescott} filter for the frequency
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of observations},
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journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
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year = {2002},
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volume = {84},
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number = {2},
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pages = {371--376},
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doi = {10.1162/003465302317411604},
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}
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