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cosmicraysandearthquakes/results/raw_pairwise_correlations.json

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Add raw pairwise correlation analysis (script 09) and paper section New script 09_raw_pairwise_correlations.py downloads OOS NMDB/USGS data and computes Pearson r and Spearman ρ (with Bonferroni correction) for all three variable pairs across in-sample, OOS, and combined windows. CR flux is represented by its per-bin station distribution (p5–p95 band with min–max overlay); seismic energy uses the physically correct E ∝ 10^(1.5·Mw) sum; sunspots shown with 365-day smoothed + raw spread. Key findings: CR vs sunspot r=-0.82 to -0.94 (Forbush decrease); CR vs seismicity r=0.057 raw (OOS: r=0.046, not significant); confounding triangle motivates HP-filter detrending analysis. Paper gains a new Section 4.1 "Raw Pairwise Correlations" with three scatter figures and a 9-test Bonferroni summary table; 24 pages total. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 11:45:50 +00:00
{
"n_tests_bonferroni": 9,
"results": [
{
"label": "CR_p50 vs Seismic",
"window": "In-sample (1976\u20132019)",
"n_bins": 3214,
"pearson_r": 0.05710710378868533,
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"pearson_ci_hi": 0.09150085205340468,
"pearson_p_bonf": 0.010798926593111189,
"spearman_rho": 0.07097861545637706,
"spearman_p": 5.63861918381612e-05,
"spearman_p_bonf": 0.0005074757265434508
},
{
"label": "CR_p95 vs Seismic",
"window": "In-sample (1976\u20132019)",
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"pearson_r": 0.06907963019575922,
"pearson_p": 8.875791465767054e-05,
"pearson_ci_lo": 0.03458782771353293,
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"pearson_p_bonf": 0.0007988212319190349,
"spearman_rho": 0.0772244192684692,
"spearman_p": 1.1713062375821977e-05,
"spearman_p_bonf": 0.0001054175613823978
},
{
"label": "CR_p50 vs Sunspot",
"window": "In-sample (1976\u20132019)",
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"pearson_r": -0.8196118840402077,
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},
{
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{
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"spearman_p_bonf": 2.894091190576486e-07
},
{
"label": "CR_p50 vs Seismic",
"window": "OOS (2020\u20132025)",
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{
"label": "CR_p95 vs Seismic",
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{
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},
{
"label": "CR_p95 vs Sunspot",
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"spearman_p_bonf": 8.487707850972454e-112
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{
"label": "Sunspot vs Seismic",
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},
{
"label": "CR_p50 vs Seismic",
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{
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},
{
"label": "CR_p50 vs Sunspot",
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{
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{
"label": "Sunspot vs Seismic",
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"spearman_p_bonf": 2.9477900776266624e-06
}
]
}
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