Add pre-registration and data availability report

Pre-registered predictions written BEFORE any OOS analysis data is loaded
(UTC 2026-04-22T00:44:30). OOS window: 2020-01-01 to 2025-04-29,
constrained by NMDB reliable end date. 30 NMDB stations pass coverage
threshold in this window.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

results/data_availability.json

@@ -0,0 +1,358 @@
+{
+  "run_date": "2026-04-22",
+  "oos_start": "2020-01-01",
+  "oos_end": "2025-04-29",
+  "constrained_by": "NMDB",
+  "nmdb_reliable_end": "2025-04-29",
+  "usgs_reliable_end": "2026-03-08",
+  "sidc_reliable_end": "2026-03-23",
+  "good_stations_oos": [
+    "AATB",
+    "APTY",
+    "ATHN",
+    "BKSN",
+    "DOMB",
+    "DOMC",
+    "FSMT",
+    "INVK",
+    "IRK3",
+    "IRKT",
+    "JUNG",
+    "JUNG1",
+    "KERG",
+    "KIEL2",
+    "LMKS",
+    "MOSC",
+    "MRNY",
+    "MXCO",
+    "NAIN",
+    "NANM",
+    "NEWK",
+    "NRLK",
+    "OULU",
+    "PSNM",
+    "PWNK",
+    "ROME",
+    "SOPB",
+    "SOPO",
+    "TERA",
+    "THUL"
+  ],
+  "flagged_stations": [
+    "AATA",
+    "DJON",
+    "DRBS",
+    "FSMT",
+    "HRMS",
+    "INVK",
+    "IRK2",
+    "IRK3",
+    "KERG",
+    "KIEL2",
+    "LMKS",
+    "MOSC",
+    "MRNY",
+    "MXCO",
+    "NAIN",
+    "NANM",
+    "NEWK",
+    "NRLK",
+    "PTFM",
+    "PWNK",
+    "SNAE",
+    "SOPB",
+    "SOPO",
+    "TERA",
+    "THUL",
+    "TSMB"
+  ],
+  "nmdb_station_detail": {
+    "AATA": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.2691,
+      "last_date": "2022-09-14",
+      "gap_days": 1316
+    },
+    "AATB": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.947,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-20",
+      "gap_days": 2
+    },
+    "APTY": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9978,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "ARNM": {
+      "status": "no_data",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0,
+      "last_date": null,
+      "gap_days": null
+    },
+    "ATHN": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8967,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "BKSN": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9861,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "CALM": {
+      "status": "no_data",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0,
+      "last_date": null,
+      "gap_days": null
+    },
+    "DJON": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0499,
+      "last_date": "2021-12-17",
+      "gap_days": 1587
+    },
+    "DOMB": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8481,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-20",
+      "gap_days": 2
+    },
+    "DOMC": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9688,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-20",
+      "gap_days": 2
+    },
+    "DRBS": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0226,
+      "last_date": "2020-02-21",
+      "gap_days": 2252
+    },
+    "FSMT": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8746,
+      "last_date": "2025-07-26",
+      "gap_days": 270
+    },
+    "HRMS": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0013,
+      "last_date": "2021-06-01",
+      "gap_days": 1786
+    },
+    "INVK": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8763,
+      "last_date": "2025-07-26",
+      "gap_days": 270
+    },
+    "IRK2": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0751,
+      "last_date": "2020-07-27",
+      "gap_days": 2095
+    },
+    "IRK3": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.5799,
+      "last_date": "2025-05-22",
+      "gap_days": 335
+    },
+    "IRKT": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9015,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "JBGO": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.3481,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-20",
+      "gap_days": 2
+    },
+    "JUNG": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9978,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "JUNG1": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9957,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "KERG": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9709,
+      "last_date": "2026-02-28",
+      "gap_days": 53
+    },
+    "KIEL": {
+      "status": "no_data",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0,
+      "last_date": null,
+      "gap_days": null
+    },
+    "KIEL2": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.5929,
+      "last_date": "2023-10-03",
+      "gap_days": 932
+    },
+    "LMKS": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.5586,
+      "last_date": "2023-07-10",
+      "gap_days": 1017
+    },
+    "MCRL": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0,
+      "last_date": null,
+      "gap_days": null
+    },
+    "MGDN": {
+      "status": "no_data",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0,
+      "last_date": null,
+      "gap_days": null
+    },
+    "MOSC": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8286,
+      "last_date": "2025-03-23",
+      "gap_days": 395
+    },
+    "MRNY": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.776,
+      "last_date": "2025-02-28",
+      "gap_days": 418
+    },
+    "MXCO": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8819,
+      "last_date": "2025-10-13",
+      "gap_days": 191
+    },
+    "NAIN": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8516,
+      "last_date": "2025-05-29",
+      "gap_days": 328
+    },
+    "NANM": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.5716,
+      "last_date": "2024-11-14",
+      "gap_days": 524
+    },
+    "NEWK": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8763,
+      "last_date": "2025-07-26",
+      "gap_days": 270
+    },
+    "NRLK": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.6801,
+      "last_date": "2025-04-29",
+      "gap_days": 358
+    },
+    "OULU": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9983,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "PSNM": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9514,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "gap_days": 3
+    },
+    "PTFM": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0009,
+      "last_date": "2025-01-02",
+      "gap_days": 475
+    },
+    "PWNK": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8763,
+      "last_date": "2025-07-26",
+      "gap_days": 270
+    },
+    "ROME": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8485,
+      "last_date": "2026-04-21",
+      "gap_days": 1
+    },
+    "SNAE": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0009,
+      "last_date": "2025-01-02",
+      "gap_days": 475
+    },
+    "SOPB": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8767,
+      "last_date": "2025-07-25",
+      "gap_days": 271
+    },
+    "SOPO": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8767,
+      "last_date": "2025-07-25",
+      "gap_days": 271
+    },
+    "TERA": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.9466,
+      "last_date": "2026-02-28",
+      "gap_days": 53
+    },
+    "THUL": {
+      "status": "ok",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.8763,
+      "last_date": "2025-07-26",
+      "gap_days": 270
+    },
+    "TSMB": {
+      "status": "low_coverage",
+      "coverage_oos": 0.0004,
+      "last_date": "2020-05-01",
+      "gap_days": 2182
+    }
+  },
+  "usgs_detail": {
+    "status": "ok",
+    "years_present": [
+      2020,
+      2021,
+      2022,
+      2023,
+      2024,
+      2025,
+      2026
+    ],
+    "total_events": 47860,
+    "reliable_end": "2026-03-08",
+    "note": "Catalogue stability: complete within ~30 days; using today-45 days"
+  },
+  "sidc_detail": {
+    "status": "ok",
+    "last_date": "2026-03-31",
+    "definitive_end": "2026-03-31",
+    "reliable_end": "2026-03-23",
+    "n_records": 76061,
+    "note": "Using provisional values (prov=1); definitive lag ~6 months"
+  }
+}

results/data_availability.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+OUT-OF-SAMPLE DATA AVAILABILITY REPORT
+Run date: 2026-04-22
+OOS window: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29  (constrained by NMDB)
+
+NMDB stations with ≥50% OOS coverage: 30
+  AATB     coverage= 94.7%  last=2026-04-20
+  APTY     coverage= 99.8%  last=2026-04-21
+  ATHN     coverage= 89.7%  last=2026-04-21
+  BKSN     coverage= 98.6%  last=2026-04-21
+  DOMB     coverage= 84.8%  last=2026-04-20
+  DOMC     coverage= 96.9%  last=2026-04-20
+  FSMT     coverage= 87.5%  last=2025-07-26
+  INVK     coverage= 87.6%  last=2025-07-26
+  IRK3     coverage= 58.0%  last=2025-05-22
+  IRKT     coverage= 90.1%  last=2026-04-21
+  JUNG     coverage= 99.8%  last=2026-04-21
+  JUNG1    coverage= 99.6%  last=2026-04-21
+  KERG     coverage= 97.1%  last=2026-02-28
+  KIEL2    coverage= 59.3%  last=2023-10-03
+  LMKS     coverage= 55.9%  last=2023-07-10
+  MOSC     coverage= 82.9%  last=2025-03-23
+  MRNY     coverage= 77.6%  last=2025-02-28
+  MXCO     coverage= 88.2%  last=2025-10-13
+  NAIN     coverage= 85.2%  last=2025-05-29
+  NANM     coverage= 57.2%  last=2024-11-14
+  NEWK     coverage= 87.6%  last=2025-07-26
+  NRLK     coverage= 68.0%  last=2025-04-29
+  OULU     coverage= 99.8%  last=2026-04-21
+  PSNM     coverage= 95.1%  last=2026-04-19
+  PWNK     coverage= 87.6%  last=2025-07-26
+  ROME     coverage= 84.9%  last=2026-04-21
+  SOPB     coverage= 87.7%  last=2025-07-25
+  SOPO     coverage= 87.7%  last=2025-07-25
+  TERA     coverage= 94.7%  last=2026-02-28
+  THUL     coverage= 87.6%  last=2025-07-26
+
+USGS: years available = [2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026]  events = 47,860
+SIDC: last_date = 2026-03-31  (provisional note: Using provisional values (prov=1); definitive lag ~6 months)

results/prereg_predictions.md

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+# Pre-Registered Predictions — Out-of-Sample CR–Seismic Validation
+
+**Written:** 2026-04-22T00:44:30Z
+**Git SHA:** unknown
+**OOS window:** 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29
+**Surrogates:** 100,000 phase-randomisation
+
+This file was created BEFORE loading or analysing any out-of-sample data.
+All thresholds are pre-specified.  Results are recorded in
+`results/out_of_sample_report.md`.
+
+---
+
+## In-sample context (1976–2019)
+
+From scripts 02–05 (Homola replication + stress tests):
+
+| Quantity | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Dominant peak lag (raw) | −525 days (half solar cycle) |
+| Dominant peak \|r\| (raw) | 0.469 |
+| r(τ=+15 d) raw | +0.310 (solar-cycle confounded) |
+| r(τ=+15 d) HP-detrended | +0.041 |
+| In-sample p_global (IAAFT, raw) | 1.000 (NOT significant after surrogate correction) |
+| After detrending | p < 0.001 at lags ≠ +15 d |
+
+The in-sample dominant peak is at −525 days, not at the claimed +15 days.
+r(+15 d) ≈ 0.04 after solar-cycle removal — this is the baseline expectation
+for the out-of-sample window.
+
+---
+
+## Pre-registered predictions
+
+### P1 — Sign and location of claimed correlation peak
+**Prediction:** If Homola et al.'s mechanism is real, the OOS window should show
+a cross-correlation peak at τ ≈ +15 days (cosmic rays leading seismic activity
+by 15 days) with **positive sign** (positive CR deviation → elevated seismic
+Mw-sum 15 days later).
+
+**Operationalisation:**
+- PASS if r(τ=+15 d) > 0 AND the lag of maximum |r(τ)| for τ ∈ [5, 30] days
+  is within ±3 days of +15 days.
+- FAIL otherwise.
+
+**Baseline from in-sample HP-detrended:** r(+15 d) ≈ +0.041
+**Monte Carlo tolerance (at 100,000 surrogates):** ±0.0063
+
+### P2 — Significance and solar-phase trend
+**Prediction:** The OOS window (2020–2025) covers Solar Cycle 25
+rising phase, approaching the predicted 2025–2027 solar maximum.  Homola's
+model predicts the CR–seismic correlation should be in a RISING phase of its
+~11-year envelope (the last in-sample envelope peak was near 2014).
+
+**Operationalisation:**
+- PASS if: (a) p_global (phase-surrogate) < 0.05, AND
+  (b) r(τ=+15 d) in rolling 18-month windows shows a non-negative trend
+  (slope ≥ 0) across the OOS period.
+- PARTIAL if (a) holds but (b) does not.
+- FAIL if p_global ≥ 0.05.
+
+### P3 — Rolling-window lag stability
+**Prediction:** The lag at which r(τ) is maximised for τ ∈ [5, 30] days should
+be stable to within ±3 days across 18-month rolling windows of the OOS data.
+
+**Operationalisation:**
+- PASS if std(τ*) ≤ 5 days across rolling sub-windows where a peak
+  in [5, 30] days exists.
+- FAIL if std(τ*) > 10 days or peaks migrate outside [5, 30] days in majority
+  of windows.
+
+### P4 — Geographic non-localisation
+**Prediction:** Per Homola et al.'s own result, the correlation should be GLOBAL
+(disappear in location-specific analyses).  After BH FDR correction at q=0.05,
+the number of significant (station, cell) pairs should NOT significantly exceed
+the expected false-discovery count.
+
+**Operationalisation:**
+- PASS if n_significant ≤ 2 × expected_FP (BH q=0.05).
+- FAIL if n_significant > 2 × expected_FP AND a clear geographic cluster emerges.
+
+---
+
+## Falsification criteria (pre-specified)
+
+### F1 — No peak in claimed window
+**Criterion:** No lag τ ∈ [5, 30] days has |r(τ)| exceeding the 95th percentile
+of the phase-surrogate distribution.
+
+- F1 TRIGGERED (Homola falsified) if the criterion holds across the full OOS
+  window AND across all 18-month sub-windows.
+
+### F2 — Peak lag drift
+**Criterion:** The optimal lag τ* for τ ∈ [5, 30] days drifts by more than
+±10 days between any two adjacent 18-month rolling windows.
+
+- F2 TRIGGERED if drift > 10 days in majority of window pairs.
+
+### F3 — Unexpected geographic localisation
+**Criterion:** The OOS correlation is STRONGER in a specific geographic region
+than globally — the inverse of Homola's own finding.
+
+- F3 TRIGGERED if n_significant > 3 × expected_FP AND a geographic cluster
+  with min p < BH-threshold is identified.
+- This would be informative negative evidence: a real local effect, but NOT
+  the global cosmic-ray mechanism Homola proposed.
+
+---
+
+## Analysis decisions (pre-specified)
+
+| Parameter | Value | Reason |
+|---|---|---|
+| Bin size | 5 days | Matches Homola et al. |
+| Lag range | ±200 days | Covers claimed +15 d with context; shorter window makes ±1000 d infeasible |
+| Surrogates | 100,000 | GPU-accelerated; MC tolerance ±0.0063 |
+| Surrogate method | Phase randomisation | Preserves power spectrum; faster than IAAFT |
+| Detrending | Linear + sunspot OLS | HP/STL inappropriate for <1 solar cycle window |
+| Min stations/bin | 3 | Matches Homola et al. |
+| Min magnitude | 4.0 | Matches Homola et al. |
+| Rolling window | 18 months | Minimum for meaningful correlation at 5-day bins |
+| Rolling step | 3 months | Smooth time evolution |
+| FDR | BH q=0.05 | Standard |
+
+---
+*This file is part of a pre-registered analysis. Results are reported regardless
+of direction in `results/out_of_sample_report.md`.*