Add pre-registration and data availability report
Pre-registered predictions written BEFORE any OOS analysis data is loaded (UTC 2026-04-22T00:44:30). OOS window: 2020-01-01 to 2025-04-29, constrained by NMDB reliable end date. 30 NMDB stations pass coverage threshold in this window. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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results/data_availability.json
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results/data_availability.json
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{
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"run_date": "2026-04-22",
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"oos_start": "2020-01-01",
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"oos_end": "2025-04-29",
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"constrained_by": "NMDB",
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"nmdb_reliable_end": "2025-04-29",
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"usgs_reliable_end": "2026-03-08",
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"sidc_reliable_end": "2026-03-23",
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"good_stations_oos": [
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"AATB",
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"APTY",
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"ATHN",
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"BKSN",
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"DOMB",
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"DOMC",
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"FSMT",
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"INVK",
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"IRK3",
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"IRKT",
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"JUNG",
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"JUNG1",
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"KERG",
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"KIEL2",
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"LMKS",
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"MOSC",
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"MRNY",
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"MXCO",
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"NAIN",
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"NANM",
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"NEWK",
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"NRLK",
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"OULU",
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"PSNM",
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"PWNK",
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"ROME",
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"SOPB",
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"SOPO",
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"TERA",
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"THUL"
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],
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"flagged_stations": [
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"AATA",
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"DJON",
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"DRBS",
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"FSMT",
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"HRMS",
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"INVK",
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"IRK2",
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"IRK3",
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"KERG",
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"KIEL2",
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"LMKS",
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"MOSC",
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"MRNY",
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"MXCO",
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"NAIN",
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"NANM",
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"NEWK",
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"NRLK",
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"PTFM",
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"PWNK",
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"SNAE",
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"SOPB",
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"SOPO",
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"TERA",
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"THUL",
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"TSMB"
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],
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"nmdb_station_detail": {
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"AATA": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.2691,
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"last_date": "2022-09-14",
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"gap_days": 1316
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},
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"AATB": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.947,
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"last_date": "2026-04-20",
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"gap_days": 2
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},
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"APTY": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9978,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"ARNM": {
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"status": "no_data",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0,
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"last_date": null,
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"gap_days": null
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},
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"ATHN": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8967,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"BKSN": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9861,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"CALM": {
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"status": "no_data",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0,
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"last_date": null,
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"gap_days": null
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},
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"DJON": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0499,
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"last_date": "2021-12-17",
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"gap_days": 1587
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},
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"DOMB": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8481,
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"last_date": "2026-04-20",
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"gap_days": 2
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},
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"DOMC": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9688,
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"last_date": "2026-04-20",
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"gap_days": 2
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},
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"DRBS": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0226,
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"last_date": "2020-02-21",
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"gap_days": 2252
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},
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"FSMT": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8746,
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"last_date": "2025-07-26",
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"gap_days": 270
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},
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"HRMS": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0013,
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"last_date": "2021-06-01",
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"gap_days": 1786
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},
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"INVK": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8763,
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"last_date": "2025-07-26",
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"gap_days": 270
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},
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"IRK2": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0751,
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"last_date": "2020-07-27",
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"gap_days": 2095
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},
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"IRK3": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.5799,
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"last_date": "2025-05-22",
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"gap_days": 335
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},
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"IRKT": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9015,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"JBGO": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.3481,
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"last_date": "2026-04-20",
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"gap_days": 2
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},
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"JUNG": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9978,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"JUNG1": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9957,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"KERG": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9709,
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"last_date": "2026-02-28",
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"gap_days": 53
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},
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"KIEL": {
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"status": "no_data",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0,
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"last_date": null,
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"gap_days": null
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},
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"KIEL2": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.5929,
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"last_date": "2023-10-03",
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"gap_days": 932
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},
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"LMKS": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.5586,
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"last_date": "2023-07-10",
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"gap_days": 1017
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},
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"MCRL": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0,
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"last_date": null,
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"gap_days": null
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},
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"MGDN": {
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"status": "no_data",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0,
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"last_date": null,
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"gap_days": null
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},
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"MOSC": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8286,
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"last_date": "2025-03-23",
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"gap_days": 395
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},
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"MRNY": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.776,
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"last_date": "2025-02-28",
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"gap_days": 418
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},
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"MXCO": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8819,
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"last_date": "2025-10-13",
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"gap_days": 191
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},
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"NAIN": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8516,
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"last_date": "2025-05-29",
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"gap_days": 328
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},
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"NANM": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.5716,
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"last_date": "2024-11-14",
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"gap_days": 524
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},
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"NEWK": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8763,
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"last_date": "2025-07-26",
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"gap_days": 270
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},
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"NRLK": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.6801,
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"last_date": "2025-04-29",
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"gap_days": 358
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},
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"OULU": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9983,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"PSNM": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9514,
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"last_date": "2026-04-19",
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"gap_days": 3
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},
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"PTFM": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0009,
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"last_date": "2025-01-02",
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"gap_days": 475
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},
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"PWNK": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8763,
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"last_date": "2025-07-26",
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"gap_days": 270
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},
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"ROME": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8485,
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"last_date": "2026-04-21",
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"gap_days": 1
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},
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"SNAE": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0009,
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"last_date": "2025-01-02",
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"gap_days": 475
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},
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"SOPB": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8767,
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"last_date": "2025-07-25",
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"gap_days": 271
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},
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"SOPO": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8767,
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"last_date": "2025-07-25",
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"gap_days": 271
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},
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"TERA": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.9466,
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"last_date": "2026-02-28",
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"gap_days": 53
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},
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"THUL": {
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"status": "ok",
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"coverage_oos": 0.8763,
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"last_date": "2025-07-26",
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"gap_days": 270
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},
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"TSMB": {
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"status": "low_coverage",
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"coverage_oos": 0.0004,
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"last_date": "2020-05-01",
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"gap_days": 2182
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}
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},
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"usgs_detail": {
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"status": "ok",
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"years_present": [
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2020,
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2021,
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2022,
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2023,
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2024,
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2025,
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2026
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],
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"total_events": 47860,
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"reliable_end": "2026-03-08",
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"note": "Catalogue stability: complete within ~30 days; using today-45 days"
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},
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"sidc_detail": {
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"status": "ok",
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"last_date": "2026-03-31",
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"definitive_end": "2026-03-31",
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"reliable_end": "2026-03-23",
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"n_records": 76061,
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"note": "Using provisional values (prov=1); definitive lag ~6 months"
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}
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}
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38
results/data_availability.txt
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38
results/data_availability.txt
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@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
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OUT-OF-SAMPLE DATA AVAILABILITY REPORT
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Run date: 2026-04-22
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OOS window: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29 (constrained by NMDB)
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NMDB stations with ≥50% OOS coverage: 30
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AATB coverage= 94.7% last=2026-04-20
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APTY coverage= 99.8% last=2026-04-21
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ATHN coverage= 89.7% last=2026-04-21
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BKSN coverage= 98.6% last=2026-04-21
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DOMB coverage= 84.8% last=2026-04-20
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DOMC coverage= 96.9% last=2026-04-20
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FSMT coverage= 87.5% last=2025-07-26
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INVK coverage= 87.6% last=2025-07-26
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IRK3 coverage= 58.0% last=2025-05-22
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IRKT coverage= 90.1% last=2026-04-21
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JUNG coverage= 99.8% last=2026-04-21
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JUNG1 coverage= 99.6% last=2026-04-21
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KERG coverage= 97.1% last=2026-02-28
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KIEL2 coverage= 59.3% last=2023-10-03
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LMKS coverage= 55.9% last=2023-07-10
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MOSC coverage= 82.9% last=2025-03-23
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MRNY coverage= 77.6% last=2025-02-28
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MXCO coverage= 88.2% last=2025-10-13
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NAIN coverage= 85.2% last=2025-05-29
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NANM coverage= 57.2% last=2024-11-14
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NEWK coverage= 87.6% last=2025-07-26
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NRLK coverage= 68.0% last=2025-04-29
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OULU coverage= 99.8% last=2026-04-21
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PSNM coverage= 95.1% last=2026-04-19
|
||||||
|
PWNK coverage= 87.6% last=2025-07-26
|
||||||
|
ROME coverage= 84.9% last=2026-04-21
|
||||||
|
SOPB coverage= 87.7% last=2025-07-25
|
||||||
|
SOPO coverage= 87.7% last=2025-07-25
|
||||||
|
TERA coverage= 94.7% last=2026-02-28
|
||||||
|
THUL coverage= 87.6% last=2025-07-26
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
USGS: years available = [2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026] events = 47,860
|
||||||
|
SIDC: last_date = 2026-03-31 (provisional note: Using provisional values (prov=1); definitive lag ~6 months)
|
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127
results/prereg_predictions.md
Normal file
127
results/prereg_predictions.md
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|
|
@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
|
||||||
|
# Pre-Registered Predictions — Out-of-Sample CR–Seismic Validation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Written:** 2026-04-22T00:44:30Z
|
||||||
|
**Git SHA:** unknown
|
||||||
|
**OOS window:** 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29
|
||||||
|
**Surrogates:** 100,000 phase-randomisation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This file was created BEFORE loading or analysing any out-of-sample data.
|
||||||
|
All thresholds are pre-specified. Results are recorded in
|
||||||
|
`results/out_of_sample_report.md`.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## In-sample context (1976–2019)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
From scripts 02–05 (Homola replication + stress tests):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Quantity | Value |
|
||||||
|
|---|---|
|
||||||
|
| Dominant peak lag (raw) | −525 days (half solar cycle) |
|
||||||
|
| Dominant peak \|r\| (raw) | 0.469 |
|
||||||
|
| r(τ=+15 d) raw | +0.310 (solar-cycle confounded) |
|
||||||
|
| r(τ=+15 d) HP-detrended | +0.041 |
|
||||||
|
| In-sample p_global (IAAFT, raw) | 1.000 (NOT significant after surrogate correction) |
|
||||||
|
| After detrending | p < 0.001 at lags ≠ +15 d |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The in-sample dominant peak is at −525 days, not at the claimed +15 days.
|
||||||
|
r(+15 d) ≈ 0.04 after solar-cycle removal — this is the baseline expectation
|
||||||
|
for the out-of-sample window.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Pre-registered predictions
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### P1 — Sign and location of claimed correlation peak
|
||||||
|
**Prediction:** If Homola et al.'s mechanism is real, the OOS window should show
|
||||||
|
a cross-correlation peak at τ ≈ +15 days (cosmic rays leading seismic activity
|
||||||
|
by 15 days) with **positive sign** (positive CR deviation → elevated seismic
|
||||||
|
Mw-sum 15 days later).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Operationalisation:**
|
||||||
|
- PASS if r(τ=+15 d) > 0 AND the lag of maximum |r(τ)| for τ ∈ [5, 30] days
|
||||||
|
is within ±3 days of +15 days.
|
||||||
|
- FAIL otherwise.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Baseline from in-sample HP-detrended:** r(+15 d) ≈ +0.041
|
||||||
|
**Monte Carlo tolerance (at 100,000 surrogates):** ±0.0063
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### P2 — Significance and solar-phase trend
|
||||||
|
**Prediction:** The OOS window (2020–2025) covers Solar Cycle 25
|
||||||
|
rising phase, approaching the predicted 2025–2027 solar maximum. Homola's
|
||||||
|
model predicts the CR–seismic correlation should be in a RISING phase of its
|
||||||
|
~11-year envelope (the last in-sample envelope peak was near 2014).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Operationalisation:**
|
||||||
|
- PASS if: (a) p_global (phase-surrogate) < 0.05, AND
|
||||||
|
(b) r(τ=+15 d) in rolling 18-month windows shows a non-negative trend
|
||||||
|
(slope ≥ 0) across the OOS period.
|
||||||
|
- PARTIAL if (a) holds but (b) does not.
|
||||||
|
- FAIL if p_global ≥ 0.05.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### P3 — Rolling-window lag stability
|
||||||
|
**Prediction:** The lag at which r(τ) is maximised for τ ∈ [5, 30] days should
|
||||||
|
be stable to within ±3 days across 18-month rolling windows of the OOS data.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Operationalisation:**
|
||||||
|
- PASS if std(τ*) ≤ 5 days across rolling sub-windows where a peak
|
||||||
|
in [5, 30] days exists.
|
||||||
|
- FAIL if std(τ*) > 10 days or peaks migrate outside [5, 30] days in majority
|
||||||
|
of windows.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### P4 — Geographic non-localisation
|
||||||
|
**Prediction:** Per Homola et al.'s own result, the correlation should be GLOBAL
|
||||||
|
(disappear in location-specific analyses). After BH FDR correction at q=0.05,
|
||||||
|
the number of significant (station, cell) pairs should NOT significantly exceed
|
||||||
|
the expected false-discovery count.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
**Operationalisation:**
|
||||||
|
- PASS if n_significant ≤ 2 × expected_FP (BH q=0.05).
|
||||||
|
- FAIL if n_significant > 2 × expected_FP AND a clear geographic cluster emerges.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Falsification criteria (pre-specified)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### F1 — No peak in claimed window
|
||||||
|
**Criterion:** No lag τ ∈ [5, 30] days has |r(τ)| exceeding the 95th percentile
|
||||||
|
of the phase-surrogate distribution.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- F1 TRIGGERED (Homola falsified) if the criterion holds across the full OOS
|
||||||
|
window AND across all 18-month sub-windows.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### F2 — Peak lag drift
|
||||||
|
**Criterion:** The optimal lag τ* for τ ∈ [5, 30] days drifts by more than
|
||||||
|
±10 days between any two adjacent 18-month rolling windows.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- F2 TRIGGERED if drift > 10 days in majority of window pairs.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### F3 — Unexpected geographic localisation
|
||||||
|
**Criterion:** The OOS correlation is STRONGER in a specific geographic region
|
||||||
|
than globally — the inverse of Homola's own finding.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- F3 TRIGGERED if n_significant > 3 × expected_FP AND a geographic cluster
|
||||||
|
with min p < BH-threshold is identified.
|
||||||
|
- This would be informative negative evidence: a real local effect, but NOT
|
||||||
|
the global cosmic-ray mechanism Homola proposed.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Analysis decisions (pre-specified)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
| Parameter | Value | Reason |
|
||||||
|
|---|---|---|
|
||||||
|
| Bin size | 5 days | Matches Homola et al. |
|
||||||
|
| Lag range | ±200 days | Covers claimed +15 d with context; shorter window makes ±1000 d infeasible |
|
||||||
|
| Surrogates | 100,000 | GPU-accelerated; MC tolerance ±0.0063 |
|
||||||
|
| Surrogate method | Phase randomisation | Preserves power spectrum; faster than IAAFT |
|
||||||
|
| Detrending | Linear + sunspot OLS | HP/STL inappropriate for <1 solar cycle window |
|
||||||
|
| Min stations/bin | 3 | Matches Homola et al. |
|
||||||
|
| Min magnitude | 4.0 | Matches Homola et al. |
|
||||||
|
| Rolling window | 18 months | Minimum for meaningful correlation at 5-day bins |
|
||||||
|
| Rolling step | 3 months | Smooth time evolution |
|
||||||
|
| FDR | BH q=0.05 | Standard |
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
*This file is part of a pre-registered analysis. Results are reported regardless
|
||||||
|
of direction in `results/out_of_sample_report.md`.*
|
||||||
Loading…
Reference in a new issue