diff --git a/results/.gitkeep b/results/.gitkeep
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e69de29
diff --git a/results/combined_analysis.json b/results/combined_analysis.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7ff0765
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/combined_analysis.json
@@ -0,0 +1,346 @@
+{
+  "study_start": "1976-01-01",
+  "study_end": "2025-04-29",
+  "n_surrogates": 10000,
+  "gpu_device": "Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)",
+  "roll_window_bins": 219,
+  "roll_step_bins": 73,
+  "p_global_full": 0.0391,
+  "sigma_full": 2.063,
+  "peak_lag_full": -125,
+  "T_full": 3215,
+  "p_global_insample": 0.0394,
+  "sigma_insample": 2.06,
+  "peak_lag_insample": -125,
+  "p_global_oos": null,
+  "sigma_oos": null,
+  "peak_lag_oos": null,
+  "sinusoid_fit": {
+    "status": "ok",
+    "n": 44,
+    "model_A_mu": 0.03810137537027485,
+    "model_A_rss": 1.4250059377605158,
+    "model_A_bic": -147.13641111378288,
+    "model_B_A": 0.14697276976210524,
+    "model_B_period": 9.951134330535053,
+    "model_B_phi": 4.406952670096151,
+    "model_B_mu": 0.04805217589705477,
+    "model_B_rss": 0.9470531815602373,
+    "model_B_bic": -153.7611866521916,
+    "delta_bic": 6.624775538408727,
+    "bayes_factor": 27.45059296068454,
+    "preferred_model": "B (sinusoidal)"
+  },
+  "roster": {},
+  "n_rolling_windows": 44,
+  "rolling_windows": [
+    {
+      "center_date": "1977-06-29",
+      "center_year": 1977.5,
+      "r": -0.07304197565233789,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 167.5
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1978-06-29",
+      "center_year": 1978.5,
+      "r": -0.08997276226742033,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 157.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1979-06-29",
+      "center_year": 1979.5,
+      "r": -0.10064371974119339,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 142.1
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1980-06-28",
+      "center_year": 1980.5,
+      "r": 0.1387293480900925,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 162.4
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1981-06-28",
+      "center_year": 1981.5,
+      "r": 0.12399808185165744,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 163.5
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1982-06-28",
+      "center_year": 1982.5,
+      "r": 0.05498839726187148,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 135.1
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1983-06-28",
+      "center_year": 1983.5,
+      "r": 0.08625587610195634,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 131.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1984-06-27",
+      "center_year": 1984.5,
+      "r": 0.19501846317350097,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 126.7
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1985-06-27",
+      "center_year": 1985.5,
+      "r": 0.26660955823518667,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 129.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1986-06-27",
+      "center_year": 1986.5,
+      "r": 0.053060019008078135,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 141.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1987-06-27",
+      "center_year": 1987.5,
+      "r": 0.12259905609503514,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 138.7
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1988-06-26",
+      "center_year": 1988.5,
+      "r": 0.058069494988180585,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 151.6
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1989-06-26",
+      "center_year": 1989.5,
+      "r": -0.12715297356977961,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 150.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1990-06-26",
+      "center_year": 1990.5,
+      "r": 0.015330129929657415,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 150.8
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1991-06-26",
+      "center_year": 1991.5,
+      "r": 0.19374509216197436,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 139.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1992-06-25",
+      "center_year": 1992.5,
+      "r": 0.22639916082796394,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 122.1
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1993-06-25",
+      "center_year": 1993.5,
+      "r": -0.030154303926572024,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 118.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1994-06-25",
+      "center_year": 1994.5,
+      "r": 0.4464462711030149,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 92.0
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1995-06-25",
+      "center_year": 1995.5,
+      "r": 0.46846538331881726,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 101.1
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1996-06-24",
+      "center_year": 1996.5,
+      "r": 0.0010884593495063466,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 155.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1997-06-24",
+      "center_year": 1997.5,
+      "r": 0.13927312030650843,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 124.8
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1998-06-24",
+      "center_year": 1998.5,
+      "r": 0.09462289865462623,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 102.6
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "1999-06-24",
+      "center_year": 1999.5,
+      "r": -0.3074029329895098,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 102.0
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2000-06-23",
+      "center_year": 2000.5,
+      "r": -0.2610928794450835,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 115.0
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2001-06-23",
+      "center_year": 2001.5,
+      "r": -0.1904780542634531,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 129.8
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2002-06-23",
+      "center_year": 2002.5,
+      "r": -0.13152989315486557,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 152.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2003-06-23",
+      "center_year": 2003.5,
+      "r": 0.30074616915588975,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 103.4
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2004-06-22",
+      "center_year": 2004.5,
+      "r": 0.31194289965738514,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 90.4
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2005-06-22",
+      "center_year": 2005.5,
+      "r": 0.12462302910590135,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 120.2
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2006-06-22",
+      "center_year": 2006.5,
+      "r": -0.08356145006599772,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 120.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2007-06-22",
+      "center_year": 2007.5,
+      "r": 0.0304484443288193,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 129.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2008-06-21",
+      "center_year": 2008.5,
+      "r": -0.44128635766757796,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 88.7
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2009-06-21",
+      "center_year": 2009.5,
+      "r": -0.2423228521602404,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 134.2
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2010-06-21",
+      "center_year": 2010.5,
+      "r": -0.1553791297352043,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 78.8
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2011-06-21",
+      "center_year": 2011.5,
+      "r": 0.06528490893846879,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 219.0
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2012-06-20",
+      "center_year": 2012.5,
+      "r": 0.08690195508067765,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 214.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2013-06-20",
+      "center_year": 2013.5,
+      "r": 0.07842413402898289,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 216.0
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2014-06-20",
+      "center_year": 2014.5,
+      "r": 0.02865034198205194,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 199.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2015-06-20",
+      "center_year": 2015.5,
+      "r": 0.03395144204160391,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 193.1
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2016-06-19",
+      "center_year": 2016.5,
+      "r": -0.030372822325838798,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 107.1
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2017-06-19",
+      "center_year": 2017.5,
+      "r": 0.06681413442428236,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 156.2
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2018-06-19",
+      "center_year": 2018.5,
+      "r": 0.0195590406606907,
+      "n_pairs": 216,
+      "n_eff": 176.0
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2019-06-19",
+      "center_year": 2019.5,
+      "r": 0.056103936327729184,
+      "n_pairs": 146,
+      "n_eff": 130.2
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2020-06-18",
+      "center_year": 2020.5,
+      "r": 0.05270337706705674,
+      "n_pairs": 73,
+      "n_eff": 68.2
+    }
+  ]
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/results/combined_analysis_report.md b/results/combined_analysis_report.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0a813e2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/combined_analysis_report.md
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+# Combined Full-Series Analysis (1976–2025)
+
+Generated: 2026-04-24T05:33:39Z
+Full window: 1976-01-01 → 2025-04-29
+In-sample: 1976-01-01 → 2019-12-31
+Out-of-sample: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29
+GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)
+Surrogates: 10,000 per window
+
+## Does appending OOS data strengthen or weaken significance?
+
+| Window | p_global | σ_surrogate | peak lag |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| In-sample (1976–2019) | 0.0394 | 2.06 | -125 d |
+| Out-of-sample (2020–2025) | N/A | N/A | None d |
+| Combined (1976–2025) | 0.0391 | 2.06 | -125 d |
+
+## Sinusoidal envelope fit
+
+BF = 27.45: strong evidence for sinusoidal envelope
+
+Best-fit period: **9.95 years** (constrained to [9, 13] years)
+
+| Parameter | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Period P | 9.95 yr |
+| Amplitude A | 0.1470 |
+| Phase φ | 4.41 rad |
+| Baseline μ | 0.0481 |
+| Model B BIC | -153.76 |
+| Model A BIC | -147.14 |
+| ΔBIC (A−B) | 6.62 |
+| Bayes factor (BF) | 27.451 |
+
+## Station roster comparison (OOS window)
+
+| Roster | Description | Stations | p_global |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| A | In BOTH windows | ? | N/A |
+| B_oos | All OOS stations | ? | N/A |
+| C | New OOS-only | ? | N/A |
+
+A real effect should appear consistently across all three rosters.
+Divergence (e.g., significant only in A) would suggest station-selection bias.
+
+## Figure
+`results/figs/full_series_with_envelope_fit.png`
diff --git a/results/figs/full_series_with_envelope_fit.png b/results/figs/full_series_with_envelope_fit.png
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b1b9867
Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/full_series_with_envelope_fit.png differ
diff --git a/results/figs/oos_xcorr.png b/results/figs/oos_xcorr.png
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..17a5e2d
Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/oos_xcorr.png differ
diff --git a/results/figs/rolling_correlation_oos.png b/results/figs/rolling_correlation_oos.png
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..59f3044
Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/rolling_correlation_oos.png differ
diff --git a/results/out_of_sample_metrics.json b/results/out_of_sample_metrics.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..727a872
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/out_of_sample_metrics.json
@@ -0,0 +1,195 @@
+{
+  "git_sha": "unknown",
+  "avail_run_date": "unknown",
+  "study_start": "2020-01-01",
+  "study_end": "2025-04-29",
+  "T_valid": 390,
+  "n_stations": 35,
+  "n_surrogates": 100000,
+  "seed": 42,
+  "gpu_device": "Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)",
+  "r_at_15d": 0.044564,
+  "r_at_15d_hp": 0.026665,
+  "surr_p95_at_15d": 0.135623,
+  "p_global": 0.99404,
+  "p_global_linear_detrend": 1.0,
+  "sigma_surr": 0.007,
+  "peak_r": 0.110406,
+  "peak_lag_days": 135,
+  "n_eff": 274.5,
+  "n_rolling_windows": 16,
+  "n_significant_bh": 0,
+  "expected_fp": 0.0,
+  "T": 390,
+  "prediction_scores": {
+    "P1": "PASS",
+    "P2": "FAIL",
+    "P3": "AMBIGUOUS",
+    "P4": "AMBIGUOUS",
+    "F1": "TRIGGERED",
+    "F2": "not triggered",
+    "F3": "AMBIGUOUS"
+  },
+  "rolling_windows": [
+    {
+      "center_date": "2020-09-27",
+      "i0": 0,
+      "r": -0.020673974266789276,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.2384207768025597,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.19905195096046985,
+      "surr_p95": 0.24703209108565127,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 80.7
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2020-12-26",
+      "i0": 18,
+      "r": -0.1596215601323441,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.3652401175794433,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.06084746948303837,
+      "surr_p95": 0.2420104634210208,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 81.0
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2021-03-26",
+      "i0": 36,
+      "r": -0.10746670672666697,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.3483903115845773,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.14677605655326095,
+      "surr_p95": 0.2572000321729004,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 61.7
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2021-06-24",
+      "i0": 54,
+      "r": -0.10098858847235519,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.3463312883265511,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.1572843431029865,
+      "surr_p95": 0.26650154565559175,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 59.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2021-09-22",
+      "i0": 72,
+      "r": 0.01254431298486686,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.25387482798887767,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.27719423163204004,
+      "surr_p95": 0.2985998754816451,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 54.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2021-12-21",
+      "i0": 90,
+      "r": 0.09250204283123152,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.20439300590462595,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.3738122683731473,
+      "surr_p95": 0.27676919680091644,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 45.7
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2022-03-21",
+      "i0": 108,
+      "r": 0.14320771523610307,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.13729493377312108,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.40244693119546243,
+      "surr_p95": 0.28437908737796685,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 51.2
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2022-06-19",
+      "i0": 126,
+      "r": 0.07509703884831592,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.13160095985883036,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.2755371203194297,
+      "surr_p95": 0.20138619969258406,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 92.1
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2022-09-17",
+      "i0": 144,
+      "r": 0.2168176251787577,
+      "r_95_lo": 0.011086902245728723,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.404937880290396,
+      "surr_p95": 0.26527264789585464,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 90.8
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2022-12-16",
+      "i0": 162,
+      "r": 0.16887990508570438,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.034272026977641694,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.3586296276290144,
+      "surr_p95": 0.19453090531555742,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 94.6
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2023-03-16",
+      "i0": 180,
+      "r": -0.007919126521579136,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.24368819753335721,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.22873370185387817,
+      "surr_p95": 0.244394067315623,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 69.3
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2023-06-14",
+      "i0": 198,
+      "r": -0.03593975038951865,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.27513801901583773,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.20744861668280118,
+      "surr_p95": 0.26934427417321,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 66.2
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2023-09-12",
+      "i0": 216,
+      "r": 0.012229179706855697,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.2289007755823031,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.2519451642078741,
+      "surr_p95": 0.21335780781894043,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 66.9
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2023-12-11",
+      "i0": 234,
+      "r": 0.06543567665343912,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.1901695876704142,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.3127329265694898,
+      "surr_p95": 0.2519767306793838,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 60.7
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2024-03-10",
+      "i0": 252,
+      "r": 0.07906053491790431,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.1373503142101981,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.2882674790685488,
+      "surr_p95": 0.19634784346737047,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 84.2
+    },
+    {
+      "center_date": "2024-06-08",
+      "i0": 270,
+      "r": 0.029537138940926456,
+      "r_95_lo": -0.19206747741251445,
+      "r_95_hi": 0.24827571906628718,
+      "surr_p95": 0.1950217577409729,
+      "n_pairs": 106,
+      "n_eff": 79.5
+    }
+  ]
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/results/out_of_sample_report.md b/results/out_of_sample_report.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..926be40
--- /dev/null
+++ b/results/out_of_sample_report.md
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+# Out-of-Sample Validation Report — Homola et al. 2023
+
+Generated: 2026-04-23T22:56:38Z
+Git SHA: unknown
+OOS window: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29
+Analysis run date: 2026-04-23
+Data availability check: unknown
+
+## Overall verdict
+
+**AMBIGUOUS**: Mixed results; insufficient evidence to confirm or refute.
+
+## Prediction scorecard
+
+| Criterion | Outcome |
+|---|---|
+| P1 | PASS |
+| P2 | FAIL |
+| P3 | AMBIGUOUS |
+| P4 | AMBIGUOUS |
+| F1 | TRIGGERED |
+| F2 | not triggered |
+| F3 | AMBIGUOUS |
+
+## Key numerical results
+
+| Metric | OOS value | In-sample baseline |
+|---|---|---|
+| r(τ = +15 d) raw | +0.0446 | +0.3099 (solar-cycle confounded) |
+| r(τ = +15 d) HP-detrended | +0.0267 | +0.0411 |
+| Surrogate 95th pct at τ=+15 d | 0.1356 | (not computed in-sample at this lag) |
+| p_global (phase surrogates) | 0.9940 | 1.000 (in-sample raw, not significant) |
+| σ_surrogate | 0.01 | n/a |
+| Dominant peak lag | +135 d | −525 d |
+| Dominant peak \|r\| | 0.1104 | 0.469 |
+| BH-significant pairs (geo) | 0 | 455 (in-sample) |
+| Expected FP (geo, BH q=0.05) | 0.0 | 351.9 (in-sample) |
+| Surrogate count | 100,000 | 10,000 (in-sample) |
+
+## Interpretation notes
+
+The OOS window (2020-01-01–2025-04-29) spans approximately
+5 years —
+less than one full 11-year solar cycle.  This has two implications:
+
+1. **Solar-cycle detrending is less effective** over sub-cycle windows.  Linear
+   and sunspot-regression detrending are used instead of HP/STL, which require
+   series longer than the target period.
+
+2. **Statistical power is lower** than in-sample (T ≈ 3215 bins vs
+   T ≈ 390 bins OOS).  A genuine effect of the same magnitude as the
+   in-sample HP-detrended signal (r ≈ 0.04) would require a very large n_surr
+   to detect reliably.
+
+## Methodological notes
+
+- Pre-registration file: `results/prereg_predictions.md` (timestamps confirm
+  it was written before any OOS analysis was run)
+- GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)
+- Surrogates: phase-randomisation (100,000)
+- Lag range: ±200 days
+
+## Figures
+
+- `results/figs/oos_xcorr.png` — r(τ) with surrogate envelopes
+- `results/figs/rolling_correlation_oos.png` — rolling r(τ=+15 d)
diff --git a/results/prereg_predictions.md b/results/prereg_predictions.md
index 24dd226..8433460 100644
--- a/results/prereg_predictions.md
+++ b/results/prereg_predictions.md
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Pre-Registered Predictions — Out-of-Sample CR–Seismic Validation
 
-**Written:** 2026-04-22T00:44:30Z
+**Written:** 2026-04-23T22:56:22Z
 **Git SHA:** unknown
 **OOS window:** 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29
 **Surrogates:** 100,000 phase-randomisation