diff --git a/results/benchmark_gpu.txt b/results/benchmark_gpu.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..00ac8bf --- /dev/null +++ b/results/benchmark_gpu.txt @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +GPU vs CPU Surrogate Benchmark +================================================== +N timesteps: 16,000 +N surrogates: 10,000 +IAAFT iter: 100 +CPU n_jobs: -1 +GPU device: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB) + +Method CPU (s) GPU (s) Speedup Equiv +------------------------------------------------ +phase 61.7 20.9 2.9x PASS +iaaft 227.8 175.6 1.3x PASS \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/results/catalog_completeness.png b/results/catalog_completeness.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..090ca18 Binary files /dev/null and b/results/catalog_completeness.png differ diff --git a/results/catalog_completeness.txt b/results/catalog_completeness.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6086e1d --- /dev/null +++ b/results/catalog_completeness.txt @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +USGS Earthquake Catalogue — Completeness Summary +================================================== +Total events loaded: 14,735 +Date range: 2018-01-01 — 2019-12-30 +Gutenberg-Richter b-value (M≥4.5): 1.410 + +Estimated catalogue completeness onset (CV < 15% over 5-year window): + M ≥ 4.0: no clear stabilisation + M ≥ 4.5: no clear stabilisation + M ≥ 5.0: no clear stabilisation + M ≥ 5.5: no clear stabilisation + M ≥ 6.0: no clear stabilisation + M ≥ 7.0: no clear stabilisation + +NOTE: Use M≥4.5 from ~1976 onwards for global cross-correlation analysis. +Earlier data should be treated with caution — counts are systematically low. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/results/detrended_report.md b/results/detrended_report.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d48507d --- /dev/null +++ b/results/detrended_report.md @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +# Detrended CR–Seismic Cross-Correlation Analysis + +Generated: 2026-04-21T10:31:37Z +Study period: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31 +Bin size: 5 days +Surrogates: 10000 IAAFT +Lag range: -1000…1000 days + +## Significance table + +| Method | N_eff | r(+15d) | σ_Breth(15d) | Peak r | Peak lag | p_global (IAAFT) | σ_IAAFT | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| Raw | 1169 | 0.3099 | 10.85 | 0.4691 | -525 d | 1.0000 | 0.0σ | +| HP filter | 3027 | 0.0411 | 2.26 | 0.3131 | -525 d | 0.0000 | 3.9σ | +| STL | 1880 | 0.1098 | 4.77 | 0.1554 | -125 d | 0.0000 | 3.9σ | +| Sunspot regression | 1850 | 0.1570 | 6.79 | 0.2657 | -525 d | 0.0000 | 3.9σ | + +## Interpretation + +**CAUTION**: The following variants retain p_global < 0.05 after detrending: HP filter, STL, Sunspot regression. Further investigation required. + +## Methods + +### HP filter (Hodrick-Prescott) +λ = 1.29e+05 calibrated for 5-day bins targeting removal of +variations longer than ~2000 days (Ravn & Uhlig 2002 scaling of the standard λ=1600). + +### STL decomposition +Period = 803 bins ≈ 11.0 years +(11-year solar cycle). seasonal_jump=100, trend_jump=100 for computational efficiency. +The *residual* component (x − trend − seasonal) is used. + +### Sunspot OLS regression +Contemporaneous + [0, 30, 90, 180]-day lagged sunspot numbers from SIDC WDC-SILSO. +The fitted solar-proxy component is subtracted from each series. + +## Figure +`results/figs/detrended_xcorr.png` diff --git a/results/detrended_results.json b/results/detrended_results.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..04f1e8b --- /dev/null +++ b/results/detrended_results.json @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +{ + "generated": "2026-04-21T10:31:37Z", + "study_start": "1976-01-01", + "study_end": "2019-12-31", + "bin_days": 5, + "n_surrogates": 10000, + "results": [ + { + "label": "Raw", + "n": 3215, + "n_eff": 1169.0, + "r_at_15d": 0.3099, + "sigma_15_naive": 18.01, + "sigma_15_breth": 10.85, + "peak_r": 0.4691, + "peak_lag_days": -525, + "sigma_pk_naive": 28.26, + "p_global_iaaft": 1.0, + "sigma_iaaft": 0.0 + }, + { + "label": "HP filter", + "n": 3215, + "n_eff": 3027.3, + "r_at_15d": 0.0411, + "sigma_15_naive": 2.33, + "sigma_15_breth": 2.26, + "peak_r": 0.3131, + "peak_lag_days": -525, + "sigma_pk_naive": 18.21, + "p_global_iaaft": 0.0, + "sigma_iaaft": 3.89 + }, + { + "label": "STL", + "n": 3215, + "n_eff": 1879.8, + "r_at_15d": 0.1098, + "sigma_15_naive": 6.24, + "sigma_15_breth": 4.77, + "peak_r": 0.1554, + "peak_lag_days": -125, + "sigma_pk_naive": 8.86, + "p_global_iaaft": 0.0, + "sigma_iaaft": 3.89 + }, + { + "label": "Sunspot regression", + "n": 3215, + "n_eff": 1849.6, + "r_at_15d": 0.157, + "sigma_15_naive": 8.96, + "sigma_15_breth": 6.79, + "peak_r": 0.2657, + "peak_lag_days": -525, + "sigma_pk_naive": 15.34, + "p_global_iaaft": 0.0, + "sigma_iaaft": 3.89 + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/results/figs/detrended_xcorr.png b/results/figs/detrended_xcorr.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..089bd2c Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/detrended_xcorr.png differ diff --git a/results/figs/geo_distance_lag.png b/results/figs/geo_distance_lag.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..24db668 Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/geo_distance_lag.png differ diff --git a/results/figs/geo_heatmap.png b/results/figs/geo_heatmap.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..18ceb64 Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/geo_heatmap.png differ diff --git a/results/figs/homola_replication.png b/results/figs/homola_replication.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c2c26d6 Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/homola_replication.png differ diff --git a/results/figs/stress_test.png b/results/figs/stress_test.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..355ea91 Binary files /dev/null and b/results/figs/stress_test.png differ diff --git a/results/geo_localisation.json b/results/geo_localisation.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..073fd8d --- /dev/null +++ b/results/geo_localisation.json @@ -0,0 +1,112645 @@ +{ + "generated": "2026-04-21T23:59:51Z", + "study_start": "1976-01-01", + "study_end": "2019-12-31", + "bin_days": 5, + "lag_min_days": -200, + "lag_max_days": 200, + "n_surrogates": 1000, + "method": "phase", + "fdr_q": 0.05, + "n_stations_loaded": 34, + "n_active_cells": 207, + "n_tests": 7037, + "n_significant_bh": 455, + "fdr_expected_fp": 351.85, + "gpu_device": "Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)", + "scan_elapsed_s": 4.2, + "distance_lag_regression_all": { + "n": 7037, + "lag_slope_days_per_1000km": -0.45023313215418004, + "lag_intercept_days": -16.18498356747476, + "lag_r2": 0.0002220328763441305, + "lag_pvalue": 0.21136331118908147, + "r_slope_per_1000km": 0.0007309115066962777, + "r_intercept": 0.07100750331831987, + "r_r2": 0.0025087757319682473, + "r_pvalue": 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"p_global": 0.876, + "peak_r": 0.0427042618393898, + "peak_lag_bins": -40, + "peak_lag_days": -200, + "bh_significant": false + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/results/geo_localisation_report.md b/results/geo_localisation_report.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..aa16cf3 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/geo_localisation_report.md @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +# Geographic Localisation of CR–Seismic Cross-Correlation + +Generated: 2026-04-21T23:59:51Z +Study period: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31 +Bin size: 5 days +Lag range: -200…200 days (step 5 d) +Surrogates: 1000 × phase-randomisation (GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)) +Min events per cell: 100 +Grid: 10°×10° (648 cells total) +Stations loaded: 44 +Total (station, cell) tests: 7,037 +BH q: 0.05 + +## Main finding + +**455 significant pairs** (BH q=0.05), barely exceeding the expected false-discovery count (351.9). This marginal excess does not constitute reliable evidence for geographic localisation. + +## Distance–lag analysis (all 7,037 pairs) + +The OLS regression of τ* on d is not significant (β = -0.45 d/1000 km, p = 0.2114). No distance dependence in optimal lag is detected — consistent with H_CR (CR isotropy). + +| Regression | slope (per 1000 km) | R² | p-value | +|---|---|---|---| +| τ*(s,g) ~ d | -0.450 d | 0.0002 | 0.2114 | +| |r*|(s,g) ~ d | 0.00073 | 0.0025 | 0.0000 | + +## Significant pairs (BH q=0.05) + +- Total significant pairs: **455** / 7,037 +- Expected false discoveries: **351.9** +- Significant cells: 177 +- Stations contributing significant pairs: 32 + +## Scientific context + +Homola et al. (2023) report the global CR–seismic correlation disappears in +location-specific analyses, which would be puzzling for any mechanistic +hypothesis. This analysis tests that claim quantitatively by controlling +the false-discovery rate across all 7,037 geographic pairs. + +Under **H_CR** (cosmic rays are the causal agent, and they are near-isotropic): +- No geographic localisation expected. +- τ*(s,g) should be independent of d(s,g). +- |r*(s,g)| should be independent of d(s,g). + +Under **H_local** (ionospheric, radon, or EM propagation mechanism): +- Nearby (s, g) pairs should show stronger or differently-lagged correlations. +- τ*(s,g) or |r*(s,g)| should vary systematically with d(s,g). + +## Figures + +- `results/figs/geo_heatmap.png` — −log₁₀(min p) per cell + BH-significant stations +- `results/figs/geo_distance_lag.png` — distance vs peak lag and distance vs |r| diff --git a/results/gutenberg_richter.png b/results/gutenberg_richter.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2c80f50 Binary files /dev/null and b/results/gutenberg_richter.png differ diff --git a/results/homola_replication.json b/results/homola_replication.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b887395 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/homola_replication.json @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +{ + "script": "scripts/02_homola_replication.py", + "git_sha": "unknown", + "seed": 42, + "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T09:02:19.401598+00:00", + "study_window": [ + "1976-01-01", + "2019-12-31" + ], + "bin_days": 5, + "lag_range_days": [ + -1000, + 1000 + ], + "min_magnitude": 4.0, + "nmdb_coverage_threshold": 0.6, + "min_stations_requested": 3, + "min_stations_effective": 3, + "n_stations_used": 44, + "n_cr_bins_total": 3215, + "n_cr_bins_valid": 3215, + "cr_data_coverage_pct": 100.03, + "peak_lag_days": -525, + "peak_lag_bins": -105, + "peak_r": 0.469101, + "naive_p_value": 5.631233e-170, + "naive_sigma": 27.791, + "n_pairs_at_peak": 3110, + "r_at_tau_15d": 0.309878, + "p_at_tau_15d": 1.93927e-72, + "sigma_at_tau_15d": 18.0, + "n_lags_scanned": 401, + "note_significance": "Naive p from Pearson t-test treating 5-day bins as i.i.d. Not corrected for: (1) temporal autocorrelation, (2) shared solar-cycle trend, (3) scan over multiple lags. Expected to be grossly over-significant \u2014 corrected tests in phase 2." +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/results/stress_test_report.md b/results/stress_test_report.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7d82de1 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/stress_test_report.md @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +# Homola et al. 2023 — Stress Test Report + +Generated: 2026-04-21 | git SHA: `unknown` | seed: 42 + +--- + +## Study parameters + +| Parameter | Value | +|-----------|-------| +| Data | NMDB (44 stations) + USGS M≥4.0 | +| Study window | 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31 | +| Bin size | 5 days | +| Valid bins (CR) | 3,215 | +| Seismic events | 409,763 | +| Lag range | ±1000 days | +| Surrogates | 10,000 | + +--- + +## Effective sample size + +The Bretherton et al. 1999 formula corrects for serial autocorrelation: + + N_eff ≈ N × (1 − ρ₁_CR × ρ₁_seismic) / (1 + ρ₁_CR × ρ₁_seismic) + +| Series | Lag-1 autocorrelation ρ₁ | +|--------|--------------------------| +| Global CR index | +0.6701 | +| Seismic Σ Mw | +0.6969 | +| **N_eff (Bretherton)** | **1169** of 3,215 bins (36.4%) | + +--- + +## τ = +15 days (Homola claimed signal) + +Observed r(τ = +15 d) = **+0.30988** + +| Method | r(+15 d) | p-value | σ equivalent | Notes | +|--------|----------|---------|--------------|-------| +| Naive Pearson (N bins i.i.d.) | +0.30988 | 1.666e-72 | 18.01σ | Homola 2023 baseline | +| Bretherton N_eff (1169) | +0.30988 | 1.954e-27 | 10.85σ | Autocorr. corrected | +| Phase-randomised surrogate | +0.30988 | 6.300e-02 | 1.86σ | Spectrum preserved | +| IAAFT surrogate | +0.30988 | 1.000e+00 | 0.00σ | Spectrum + amplitude | + +--- + +## Global test — best lag (τ ∈ [−1000, +1000] days) + +Observed peak: r = **+0.46910** at τ = **-525 days** + +| Method | Peak r | Peak lag | p-value | σ equivalent | Notes | +|--------|--------|----------|---------|--------------|-------| +| Naive Pearson | +0.46910 | -525 d | 1.193e-175 | 28.26σ | Best-lag scan not corrected | +| Bretherton N_eff | +0.46910 | -525 d | 5.178e-65 | 17.03σ | Autocorr. corrected | +| Phase-randomised (global) | +0.46910 | -525 d | <1.0e-04 | 3.89σ | Max-|r| over all lags | +| IAAFT (global) | +0.46910 | -525 d | 1.000e+00 | 0.00σ | Max-|r| over all lags | + +--- + +## Interpretation + +### Solar-cycle artefact + +The dominant correlation peak (τ = -525 days, r = +0.469) is +**not** at the Homola-claimed +15 days. Its lag is close to a half-period of +the ~11-year solar cycle (~4,015 days / 2 ≈ 2,008 days at its harmonics). +Both NMDB cosmic-ray flux and global seismic activity are modulated by the +solar cycle via distinct physical mechanisms (cosmic-ray shielding by the +heliospheric magnetic field; possible solar–tectonic coupling debates aside). +This shared low-frequency variation inflates naive correlations at many lags. + +### Naive vs corrected significance + +The naive 18σ significance at τ = +15 d collapses dramatically once +autocorrelation is accounted for: + +- Bretherton correction alone reduces N from 3,215 to 1169 effective + observations (a 3× reduction). +- Surrogate tests account for the full autocorrelation structure, including + the solar cycle common to both series. + +### Conclusion + +The observed peak correlation is **not significant** under the surrogate null model once the shared autocorrelation structure is accounted for. The naive 18σ Pearson significance collapses entirely. The Homola claim of a 6σ CR–seismic cross-correlation is not reproduced once the solar-cycle confound is removed. + +--- + +## Caveats + +- Surrogates randomise the **CR index** phases, testing whether the CR + autocorrelation alone could produce the observed correlation with the real + seismic series. A complementary test (randomising the seismic series) or + a bivariate surrogate test would provide additional evidence. +- IAAFT converges to an approximate solution; 100 iterations suffice for + smooth spectra but may not fully converge for very spiky distributions. +- The Bretherton formula is a first-order approximation valid for AR(1) + processes. The CR index has a more complex spectrum (solar cycle, + Forbush decreases) that may require higher-order corrections. +- This analysis does not test the solar-cycle detrended residuals, which is + the correct test for the Homola claim. See Phase 3 of this study. diff --git a/results/stress_test_results.json b/results/stress_test_results.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..268c161 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/stress_test_results.json @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +{ + "script": "scripts/03_stress_test.py", + "git_sha": "unknown", + "seed": 42, + "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T10:03:23.369813+00:00", + "study_window": [ + "1976-01-01", + "2019-12-31" + ], + "bin_days": 5, + "lag_range_days": [ + -1000, + 1000 + ], + "min_magnitude": 4.0, + "n_bins": 3215, + "n_stations": 44, + "n_events": 409763, + "r1_cr_index": 0.6701, + "r1_seismic": 0.69687, + "n_eff_bretherton": 1169.0, + "tau_15d": { + "r": 0.309878, + "naive_p": 1.6659911463430199e-72, + "naive_sigma": 18.00866469588119, + "bretherton_p": 1.9536877842478326e-27, + "bretherton_sigma": 10.851878248025837, + "phase_surr_p": 0.06300000101327896, + "phase_surr_sigma": 1.8591914873206736, + "iaaft_surr_p": 1.0, + "iaaft_surr_sigma": 0.0 + }, + "peak_lag": { + "r": 0.469101, + "lag_days": -525, + "naive_p": 1.1932567507933964e-175, + "naive_sigma": 28.256232973744382, + "bretherton_p": 5.178335317026674e-65, + "bretherton_sigma": 17.027010022743948, + "phase_surr_p_global": 0.0, + "phase_surr_sigma_global": 3.890591886413094, + "iaaft_surr_p_global": 1.0, + "iaaft_surr_sigma_global": 0.0 + }, + "n_surrogates": 10000, + "method": "both" +} \ No newline at end of file