2a — Replace physically invalid summed-Mw seismic metric with correct
log10(ΣE) where E=10^(1.5·Mw+4.8) J (Kanamori 1977). Updates
usgs.py (new seismic_energy_per_bin()), scripts 02/07/08.
Impact: r(+15d) raw 0.310→0.081, peak r 0.469→0.139; sinusoidal
BF 27.5→0.75 (constant model now preferred).
2b — HP λ derivation: λ_5 = 1600×(365/5)^4 ≈ 4.54×10^10 (Ravn & Uhlig
2002 rescaling); detrend robustness figure (HP/Butterworth/rolling
mean), all show r(+15d)<0.04.
2c — Neff comparison: Bartlett 2923, Bretherton 769, Monte Carlo 594;
MC 95% CI [-0.002, +0.158] straddles zero → raw r not significant
under most conservative estimate.
2d — Magnitude threshold (M≥4.5/5.0/6.0): r(+15d) range 0.050–0.079
(Δ=0.029 < 0.05), peak stable at τ=−525 d; no aftershock bias.
Paper (main.tex, refs.bib): update all numbers, add Kanamori/Bartlett/
Ravn–Uhlig refs, new sections for 2b–2d with figures and Neff table.
PDF recompiled (27 pages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
surrogates_gpu.py: auto_batch_size was missing the irfft output buffer
(batch × T × 4 bytes) from its per-surrogate VRAM estimate, causing OOM
on long series (T≈3600). Added the missing term.
08_combined_timeseries.py: write_combined_report crashed with TypeError
when in-sample load failed (keys absent → None). Added _fv() helper that
formats None values as "N/A" instead of failing.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Scripts 01-08 implement the complete cosmic-ray/earthquake correlation
analysis from data ingestion through out-of-sample validation and
combined timeseries sinusoid fitting.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
