New script 09_raw_pairwise_correlations.py downloads OOS NMDB/USGS data
and computes Pearson r and Spearman ρ (with Bonferroni correction) for
all three variable pairs across in-sample, OOS, and combined windows.
CR flux is represented by its per-bin station distribution (p5–p95 band
with min–max overlay); seismic energy uses the physically correct
E ∝ 10^(1.5·Mw) sum; sunspots shown with 365-day smoothed + raw spread.
Key findings: CR vs sunspot r=-0.82 to -0.94 (Forbush decrease); CR vs
seismicity r=0.057 raw (OOS: r=0.046, not significant); confounding
triangle motivates HP-filter detrending analysis.
Paper gains a new Section 4.1 "Raw Pairwise Correlations" with three
scatter figures and a 9-test Bonferroni summary table; 24 pages total.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
19-page paper covering the full analysis: in-sample replication,
IAAFT surrogate testing, solar-cycle detrending, geographic localisation
scan, pre-registered out-of-sample validation, and combined sinusoidal
Bayes-factor analysis. Conclusion: the CR-seismic correlation is a
solar-cycle artefact with no physical causal link.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
