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cosmicraysandearthquakes/logs/stress_test.log
root 556261f842 Add notebook, logs, and updated result reports 
- CosmicRayNeutronQuakeAnalysis.ipynb: exploratory analysis notebook
- logs/: download and analysis run logs
- results/*_report.md: updated analysis reports reflecting corrected
  seismic metric and additional robustness checks

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 21:25:59 +02:00

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2026-04-21T12:01:31 INFO crq.stress_test — Stress test | git=unknown seed=42
2026-04-21T12:01:31 INFO crq.stress_test — Study window: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31
2026-04-21T12:01:31 INFO crq.stress_test — Surrogates: 10000 method: both n_jobs: -1
2026-04-21T12:01:31 INFO crq.stress_test — Loading CR index …
2026-04-21T12:01:31 INFO crq.homola — station AATA valid_days= 337 coverage= 2.1% mean=3756.2
2026-04-21T12:01:32 INFO crq.homola — station AATB valid_days=15051 coverage= 93.7% mean=1383.0
2026-04-21T12:01:32 INFO crq.homola — station APTY valid_days= 7119 coverage= 44.3% mean=171.9
2026-04-21T12:01:32 INFO crq.homola — station ARNM valid_days= 1544 coverage= 9.6% mean=641.2
2026-04-21T12:01:32 INFO crq.homola — station ATHN valid_days= 6747 coverage= 42.0% mean=55.3
2026-04-21T12:01:32 INFO crq.homola — station BKSN valid_days= 3722 coverage= 23.2% mean=115.7
2026-04-21T12:01:32 INFO crq.homola — station CALM valid_days= 2056 coverage= 12.8% mean=72.4
2026-04-21T12:01:33 INFO crq.homola — station DJON valid_days= 2279 coverage= 14.2% mean=141.0
2026-04-21T12:01:33 INFO crq.homola — station DOMB valid_days= 1697 coverage= 10.6% mean=5.5
2026-04-21T12:01:33 INFO crq.homola — station DOMC valid_days= 1774 coverage= 11.0% mean=19.8
2026-04-21T12:01:33 INFO crq.homola — station DRBS valid_days=15146 coverage= 94.2% mean=107.4
2026-04-21T12:01:33 INFO crq.homola — station FSMT valid_days= 6985 coverage= 43.5% mean=212.1
2026-04-21T12:01:34 INFO crq.homola — station HRMS valid_days=15682 coverage= 97.6% mean=118.2
2026-04-21T12:01:34 INFO crq.homola — station INVK valid_days= 7162 coverage= 44.6% mean=188.9
2026-04-21T12:01:35 INFO crq.homola — station IRK2 valid_days= 1750 coverage= 10.9% mean=287.6
2026-04-21T12:01:35 INFO crq.homola — station IRK3 valid_days= 1133 coverage= 7.0% mean=202.7
2026-04-21T12:01:35 INFO crq.homola — station IRKT valid_days= 1487 coverage= 9.3% mean=217.1
2026-04-21T12:01:35 INFO crq.homola — station JBGO valid_days= 1198 coverage= 7.5% mean=277.4
2026-04-21T12:01:35 INFO crq.homola — station JUNG valid_days= 6563 coverage= 40.8% mean=184.4
2026-04-21T12:01:35 INFO crq.homola — station JUNG1 valid_days= 3998 coverage= 24.9% mean=379.8
2026-04-21T12:01:36 INFO crq.homola — station KERG valid_days=15801 coverage= 98.3% mean=214.2
2026-04-21T12:01:36 INFO crq.homola — station KIEL valid_days=13954 coverage= 86.8% mean=165.8
2026-04-21T12:01:36 INFO crq.homola — station KIEL2 valid_days= 2942 coverage= 18.3% mean=175.1
2026-04-21T12:01:36 INFO crq.homola — station LMKS valid_days=13909 coverage= 86.5% mean=455.4
2026-04-21T12:01:37 INFO crq.homola — station MCRL valid_days= 3656 coverage= 22.7% mean=52.2
2026-04-21T12:01:37 INFO crq.homola — station MGDN valid_days=13518 coverage= 84.1% mean=147.2
2026-04-21T12:01:37 INFO crq.homola — station MOSC valid_days=15994 coverage= 99.5% mean=191.1
2026-04-21T12:01:38 INFO crq.homola — station MRNY valid_days= 4651 coverage= 28.9% mean=122.8
2026-04-21T12:01:38 INFO crq.homola — station MXCO valid_days=10469 coverage= 65.1% mean=219.4
2026-04-21T12:01:38 INFO crq.homola — station NAIN valid_days= 6858 coverage= 42.7% mean=211.0
2026-04-21T12:01:38 INFO crq.homola — station NANM valid_days= 8241 coverage= 51.3% mean=469.0
2026-04-21T12:01:39 INFO crq.homola — station NEWK valid_days=15941 coverage= 99.2% mean=94.0
2026-04-21T12:01:39 INFO crq.homola — station NRLK valid_days= 852 coverage= 5.3% mean=153.3
2026-04-21T12:01:39 INFO crq.homola — station OULU valid_days=16008 coverage= 99.6% mean=102.5
2026-04-21T12:01:40 INFO crq.homola — station PSNM valid_days= 4357 coverage= 27.1% mean=614.8
2026-04-21T12:01:40 INFO crq.homola — station PTFM valid_days=10662 coverage= 66.3% mean=56.2
2026-04-21T12:01:40 INFO crq.homola — station PWNK valid_days= 6359 coverage= 39.6% mean=211.2
2026-04-21T12:01:40 INFO crq.homola — station ROME valid_days=10641 coverage= 66.2% mean=142.4
2026-04-21T12:01:41 INFO crq.homola — station SNAE valid_days=14043 coverage= 87.4% mean=160.7
2026-04-21T12:01:41 INFO crq.homola — station SOPB valid_days= 5076 coverage= 31.6% mean=126.0
2026-04-21T12:01:41 INFO crq.homola — station SOPO valid_days=13999 coverage= 87.1% mean=289.5
2026-04-21T12:01:42 INFO crq.homola — station TERA valid_days=12610 coverage= 78.5% mean=111.9
2026-04-21T12:01:42 INFO crq.homola — station THUL valid_days=15227 coverage= 94.7% mean=119.4
2026-04-21T12:01:42 INFO crq.homola — station TSMB valid_days=14005 coverage= 87.1% mean=324.4
2026-04-21T12:01:42 INFO crq.homola — Loaded 44 stations with valid data.
2026-04-21T12:01:42 INFO crq.homola — CR index: 3215 5-day bins, 3215 non-NaN (100.0%)
2026-04-21T12:01:42 INFO crq.stress_test — Loading seismic metric …
2026-04-21T12:01:46 INFO crq.homola — Seismic: 409763 events M≥4.0 in 1976-01-01–2019-12-31
2026-04-21T12:01:46 INFO crq.homola — Seismic metric: 3215 bins, 100.0% non-zero
2026-04-21T12:01:49 INFO crq.stress_test — ρ₁(CR)=0.6701 ρ₁(seismic)=0.6969 N_eff=1169 (of 3215 bins)
2026-04-21T12:01:49 INFO crq.stress_test — τ=+15d: r=0.30988 naive=18.0σ Bretherton=10.9σ
2026-04-21T12:01:49 INFO crq.stress_test — Peak: r=0.46910 lag=-525 d naive=28.3σ Bretherton=17.0σ
2026-04-21T12:01:49 INFO crq.stress_test — Running phase-randomised surrogate test …
2026-04-21T12:01:49 INFO crq.stats.surrogates — Surrogate test (phase × 10000): observed peak |r| = 0.4691 at lag bin -105
2026-04-21T12:01:49 INFO crq.stats.surrogates — Dispatching 113 batches (batch_size=89) across all workers …
2026-04-21T12:02:10 INFO crq.stats.surrogates — p_global = 0.0000 (3.89σ equiv.) | 0 / 10000 surrogates exceeded peak
2026-04-21T12:02:10 INFO crq.stress_test — Phase: p_global=0.0000 (3.89σ) p(+15d)=0.0630
2026-04-21T12:02:10 INFO crq.stress_test — Running IAAFT surrogate test …
2026-04-21T12:02:10 INFO crq.stats.surrogates — Surrogate test (iaaft × 10000): observed peak |r| = 0.4691 at lag bin -105
2026-04-21T12:02:10 INFO crq.stats.surrogates — Dispatching 113 batches (batch_size=89) across all workers …
2026-04-21T12:03:21 INFO crq.stats.surrogates — p_global = 1.0000 (0.00σ equiv.) | 10000 / 10000 surrogates exceeded peak
2026-04-21T12:03:21 INFO crq.stress_test — IAAFT: p_global=1.0000 (0.00σ) p(+15d)=1.0000
2026-04-21T12:03:23 INFO crq.stress_test — Saved: /root/cosmicrayquake/results/figs/stress_test.png
2026-04-21T12:03:23 INFO crq.stress_test — Saved: /root/cosmicrayquake/results/stress_test_report.md
2026-04-21T12:03:23 INFO crq.stress_test — Saved: /root/cosmicrayquake/results/stress_test_results.json
======================================================================
STRESS TEST SUMMARY
======================================================================
Study: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31 | 44 stations | 3,215 bins
ρ₁(CR)=0.670 ρ₁(seismic)=0.697 N_eff=1169 (36.4% of N)
τ = +15 d (Homola claim):
r = +0.30988
Naive: 18.0σ (p=1.67e-72)
Bretherton: 10.9σ (p=1.95e-27)
Phase surr: 1.86σ (p=0.0630)
IAAFT surr: 0.00σ (p=1.0000)
Peak (global, any lag):
r = +0.46910 at τ = -525 d
Naive: 28.3σ (p=1.19e-175)
Bretherton: 17.0σ (p=5.18e-65)
Phase surr (global): 3.89σ (p=0.0000)
IAAFT surr (global): 0.00σ (p=1.0000)
======================================================================
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