1d01fcf102
3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.
3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
preprocessing circularity.
3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.
3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
unchanged — missing data is not a confound.
3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).
3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.
3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
(0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
— phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.
Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.
Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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3.8 KiB
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{
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"3a_block_bootstrap": {
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"block_len_bins": 804,
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"obs_r_15d": 0.07861489210244768,
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"obs_peak_r": 0.13487884023035338,
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"p_block_15d": 0.0224,
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"p_block_peak": 0.0078,
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"ci95_15d": [
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-0.06666438961658633,
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0.0682932463714636
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],
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"iaaft_p_global_raw": 0.0,
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"interpretation": "p-value similar to IAAFT"
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},
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"3b_partial_correlation": {
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"sunspot_slope": -0.0010697974037700612,
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"r_raw_15d": 0.0786167037488285,
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"r_partial_15d": 0.028775255831885685,
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"drop_fraction_at_15d": 0.6339803825428832,
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"peak_r_partial": 0.10058325167521967,
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"interpretation": "Partial correlation near zero \u2014 solar-cycle confounding confirmed"
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},
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"3c_coherence_mi": {
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"coherence_solar_cycle_band": 0.8398522322268607,
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"coherence_95pct_threshold": 0.7763932022500211,
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"mi_lag0": 0.006683319941448218,
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"mi_lag15d": 0.0,
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"p_mi_lag0": 0.062,
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"p_mi_lag15d": 1.0
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},
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"3d_missing_data": {
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"station_threshold_sensitivity": [
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{
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"min_stations": 2,
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"nan_fraction": 0.0,
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"nan_fraction_near_solar_max": 0.0,
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"nan_fraction_far_from_solar_max": 0.0,
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"clustering_ratio": 0.0,
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"r_at_15d": 0.07861670374882847
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},
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{
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"min_stations": 3,
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"nan_fraction": 0.0,
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"nan_fraction_near_solar_max": 0.0,
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"nan_fraction_far_from_solar_max": 0.0,
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"clustering_ratio": 0.0,
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"r_at_15d": 0.07861670374882847
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},
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{
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"min_stations": 5,
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"nan_fraction": 0.0,
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"nan_fraction_near_solar_max": 0.0,
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"nan_fraction_far_from_solar_max": 0.0,
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"clustering_ratio": 0.0,
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"r_at_15d": 0.07861670374882847
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}
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]
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},
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"3e_bin_size": {
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"bin_size_sensitivity": [
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{
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"bin_days": 1,
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"r_at_claimed_lag": 0.035457258390485795,
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"claimed_lag_days": 15,
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"peak_r": 0.08765920746165931,
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"peak_lag_days": -525
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},
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{
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"bin_days": 5,
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"r_at_claimed_lag": 0.0786167037488285,
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"claimed_lag_days": 15,
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"peak_r": 0.13487884023035338,
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"peak_lag_days": -525
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},
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{
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"bin_days": 27,
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"r_at_claimed_lag": 0.12302559221199305,
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"claimed_lag_days": 27,
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"peak_r": 0.21674265231313997,
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"peak_lag_days": -513
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}
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]
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},
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"3f_declustering": {
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"n_events_full": 232043,
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"n_mainshocks": 166169,
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"fraction_removed": 0.28388703817826866,
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"r_15d_full": 0.0786167037488285,
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"r_15d_declustered": 0.06502872576089179,
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"peak_r_full": 0.13487884023035338,
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"peak_r_declustered": 0.12384155136507456,
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"interpretation": "Aftershock clustering is NOT a primary confound \u2014 result stable after GK declustering"
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},
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"3g_solar_cycles": {
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"per_cycle": {
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"cycle_21": {
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"start": "1976-03-01",
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"end": "1986-09-01",
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"n_bins": 768,
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"r_at_15d": 0.07118320436089393,
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"peak_r": 0.1180329918201807,
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"peak_lag_days": -65
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},
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"cycle_22": {
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"start": "1986-09-01",
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"end": "1996-08-01",
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"n_bins": 724,
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"r_at_15d": 0.05738270708702726,
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"peak_r": 0.10420488714969577,
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"peak_lag_days": -125
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},
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"cycle_23": {
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"start": "1996-08-01",
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"end": "2008-12-01",
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"n_bins": 901,
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"r_at_15d": 0.017585753106899405,
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"peak_r": 0.05956387248452478,
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"peak_lag_days": 125
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},
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"cycle_24": {
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"start": "2008-12-01",
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"end": "2019-12-31",
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"n_bins": 810,
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"r_at_15d": 0.07310193509089967,
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"peak_r": 0.1769572220601618,
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"peak_lag_days": -125
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}
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},
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"r15d_range": [
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0.017585753106899405,
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0.07310193509089967
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],
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"sign_consistent_across_cycles": true,
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"interpretation": "r(+15d) consistent in sign across all solar cycles"
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}
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} |