817d7ba042
New script 09_raw_pairwise_correlations.py downloads OOS NMDB/USGS data and computes Pearson r and Spearman ρ (with Bonferroni correction) for all three variable pairs across in-sample, OOS, and combined windows. CR flux is represented by its per-bin station distribution (p5–p95 band with min–max overlay); seismic energy uses the physically correct E ∝ 10^(1.5·Mw) sum; sunspots shown with 365-day smoothed + raw spread. Key findings: CR vs sunspot r=-0.82 to -0.94 (Forbush decrease); CR vs seismicity r=0.057 raw (OOS: r=0.046, not significant); confounding triangle motivates HP-filter detrending analysis. Paper gains a new Section 4.1 "Raw Pairwise Correlations" with three scatter figures and a 9-test Bonferroni summary table; 24 pages total. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
200 lines
No EOL
6.5 KiB
JSON
200 lines
No EOL
6.5 KiB
JSON
{
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"n_tests_bonferroni": 9,
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"results": [
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{
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"label": "CR_p50 vs Seismic",
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"window": "In-sample (1976\u20132019)",
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"n_bins": 3214,
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"label": "CR_p95 vs Seismic",
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"window": "In-sample (1976\u20132019)",
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"n_bins": 3214,
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"label": "CR_p50 vs Sunspot",
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"label": "Sunspot vs Seismic",
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} |