root 1d01fcf102 Add seven additional robustness checks (3a–3g) and update paper ...

3a  Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
    p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
    the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.

3b  Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
    from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
    preprocessing circularity.

3c  Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
    kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
    nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.

3d  Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
    unchanged — missing data is not a confound.

3e  Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
    r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).

3f  GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
    changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.

3g  Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
    (0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
    — phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.

Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
  kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
  coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.

Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
  nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
  Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
  GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
  preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-24 20:43:08 +02:00

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