1d01fcf102
3a Block-bootstrap surrogates (B=804 bins≈11 yr, n=5000): raw r(+15d)
p=0.022 — marginally significant on undetrended series, driven by
the shared solar-cycle trend not a causal signal.
3b Partial correlation (sunspot-regressed, no filter): r(+15d) drops
from 0.079 to 0.029 (63%) — confirms solar-cycle confounding without
preprocessing circularity.
3c Spectral coherence in solar-cycle band = 0.840 (>0.776 threshold);
kNN mutual information at τ=+15d = 0.000 nats (p=1.000) — no
nonlinear dependence at the claimed lag.
3d Missing-data impact: 0% NaN at station thresholds 2/3/5; r(+15d)
unchanged — missing data is not a confound.
3e Bin-size sensitivity: dominant peak at τ≈-520d for 1/5/27-day bins;
r at +15d scales with bin size (solar-cycle leakage, not physical).
3f GK declustering removes 28.4% of events as aftershocks; r(+15d)
changes by only Δ=0.014 — aftershock clustering not a confound.
3g Per-solar-cycle analysis (cycles 21–24): r(+15d) all positive
(0.018–0.073) but dominant peak lags scattered (-65/-125/+125/-125d)
— phase-drifting solar-cycle artefact, not physical precursor.
Script fixes: vectorised block bootstrap (401×5000 → NumPy matmul),
kNN MI with sorted searchsorted (O(N log N), no inflated values),
coherence nperseg 512→2048 (resolves solar-cycle band), axhspan→axvspan.
Paper: new Methods subsections (block bootstrap, partial correlation,
nonlinear dependence); new Results subsections for each check; updated
Conclusions with 7-item robustness summary; Kraskov2004 and
GardnerKnopoff1974 added to refs.bib; Homola2023 updated to arXiv
preprint 2204.12310; eq:energy duplicate label fixed. PDF: 35 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
56 lines
5.1 KiB
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56 lines
5.1 KiB
TeX
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1}Introduction}{5}{section.1}%
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\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2}Data}{6}{section.2}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.1}Cosmic-Ray Flux: NMDB Neutron Monitors}{6}{subsection.2.1}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.2}Seismic Activity: USGS Earthquake Catalogue}{6}{subsection.2.2}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {2.3}Solar Activity: SIDC Sunspot Number}{6}{subsection.2.3}%
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\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3}Methods}{7}{section.3}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.1}Cross-Correlation at Lag $\tau $}{7}{subsection.3.1}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.2}Effective Degrees of Freedom}{7}{subsection.3.2}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.3}Surrogate Significance Tests}{7}{subsection.3.3}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {3.3.1}Phase Randomisation}{7}{subsubsection.3.3.1}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {3.3.2}IAAFT Surrogates}{8}{subsubsection.3.3.2}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {3.3.3}Block-Bootstrap Surrogates}{8}{subsubsection.3.3.3}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {3.3.4}Global $p$-Value}{8}{subsubsection.3.3.4}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {3.3.5}GPU Acceleration}{8}{subsubsection.3.3.5}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.4}Solar-Cycle Detrending}{9}{subsection.3.4}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.5}Partial Correlation Analysis}{9}{subsection.3.5}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.6}Nonlinear Dependence Tests}{10}{subsection.3.6}%
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\contentsline {paragraph}{Spectral coherence.}{10}{section*.2}%
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\contentsline {paragraph}{Mutual information.}{10}{section*.3}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.7}Geographic Localisation Scan}{10}{subsection.3.7}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.8}Pre-Registered Out-of-Sample Validation}{11}{subsection.3.8}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {3.9}Combined Timeseries: Sinusoidal Envelope Fit}{11}{subsection.3.9}%
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\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4}Results}{12}{section.4}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.1}Raw Pairwise Correlations Between CR, Seismic, and Sunspot Data}{12}{subsection.4.1}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.1.1}CR index: station distribution}{12}{subsubsection.4.1.1}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.1.2}Seismic energy metric}{12}{subsubsection.4.1.2}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.1.3}Sunspot number}{12}{subsubsection.4.1.3}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.1.4}Correlation results}{13}{subsubsection.4.1.4}%
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\contentsline {paragraph}{CR vs.\ seismicity.}{13}{section*.4}%
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\contentsline {paragraph}{CR vs.\ sunspot number.}{13}{section*.5}%
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\contentsline {paragraph}{Sunspot vs.\ seismicity.}{13}{section*.6}%
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {4.1.5}Interpretation: a confounding triangle}{13}{subsubsection.4.1.5}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.2}In-Sample Replication (1976--2019)}{14}{subsection.4.2}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.3}IAAFT Surrogate Test}{17}{subsection.4.3}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.4}Effect of Solar-Cycle Detrending}{18}{subsection.4.4}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.5}Detrending Robustness}{18}{subsection.4.5}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.6}Comparison of $N_\text {eff}$ Estimators}{18}{subsection.4.6}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.7}Magnitude Threshold Sensitivity}{20}{subsection.4.7}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.8}Block-Bootstrap Surrogate Comparison}{20}{subsection.4.8}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.9}Partial Correlation: Controlling for Sunspot Number}{21}{subsection.4.9}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.10}Spectral Coherence and Mutual Information}{21}{subsection.4.10}%
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\contentsline {paragraph}{Coherence.}{21}{section*.20}%
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\contentsline {paragraph}{Mutual information.}{22}{section*.21}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.11}Missing-Data Sensitivity}{22}{subsection.4.11}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.12}Bin-Size Sensitivity}{24}{subsection.4.12}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.13}Earthquake Declustering (Gardner--Knopoff)}{24}{subsection.4.13}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.14}Sub-Period Analysis by Solar Cycle}{25}{subsection.4.14}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.15}Geographic Localisation}{25}{subsection.4.15}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.16}Pre-Registered Out-of-Sample Validation (2020--2025)}{28}{subsection.4.16}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.17}Combined 1976--2025 Analysis: Sinusoidal Modulation}{29}{subsection.4.17}%
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\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5}Discussion}{30}{section.5}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.1}Why Does the Raw Correlation Appear So Strong?}{30}{subsection.5.1}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2}Physical Plausibility of the Claimed Mechanism}{30}{subsection.5.2}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.3}Comparison with Prior Replication Attempts}{31}{subsection.5.3}%
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\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.4}Limitations}{31}{subsection.5.4}%
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\contentsline {section}{\numberline {6}Conclusions}{31}{section.6}%
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