817d7ba042
New script 09_raw_pairwise_correlations.py downloads OOS NMDB/USGS data and computes Pearson r and Spearman ρ (with Bonferroni correction) for all three variable pairs across in-sample, OOS, and combined windows. CR flux is represented by its per-bin station distribution (p5–p95 band with min–max overlay); seismic energy uses the physically correct E ∝ 10^(1.5·Mw) sum; sunspots shown with 365-day smoothed + raw spread. Key findings: CR vs sunspot r=-0.82 to -0.94 (Forbush decrease); CR vs seismicity r=0.057 raw (OOS: r=0.046, not significant); confounding triangle motivates HP-filter detrending analysis. Paper gains a new Section 4.1 "Raw Pairwise Correlations" with three scatter figures and a 9-test Bonferroni summary table; 24 pages total. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
38 lines
2 KiB
TeX
38 lines
2 KiB
TeX
% Auto-generated by 09_raw_pairwise_correlations.py
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\begin{table}[htbp]
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\centering
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\caption{Raw pairwise correlation statistics across three time windows.
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Bonferroni correction applied for $3 \times 3 = 9$ tests.
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CR uses the per-bin station-median index.
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Seismic energy is $\log_{10}\!\left(\sum 10^{1.5 M_W}\right)$.
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Sunspot is the 365-day smoothed daily count.
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$^{*}p_\text{Bonf}<0.05$, $^{**}p_\text{Bonf}<0.01$,
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$^{***}p_\text{Bonf}<0.001$.}
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\label{tab:rawcorr}
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\setlength{\tabcolsep}{4pt}
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\begin{tabular}{llrrrrrrr}
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\toprule
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Pair & Window & $N$ &
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$r$ & 95\% CI &
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$p$ (raw) & $p$ (Bonf.) &
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$\rho$ & $p_\rho$ (Bonf.) \\
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\midrule
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CR (med.) vs Seismicity & In-sample (1976--2019) & 3214 & 0.057$^{*}$ & [0.023, 0.092] & 0.0012 & 0.0108 & 0.071$^{***}$ & 0.000507 \\
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& OOS (2020--2025) & 390 & 0.046 & [-0.053, 0.145] & 0.362 & 1 & 0.018 & 1 \\
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& Combined (1976--2025) & 3604 & 0.055$^{**}$ & [0.023, 0.088] & 0.0009 & 0.0081 & 0.065$^{***}$ & 0.000958 \\
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\addlinespace
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CR (med.) vs Sunspot & In-sample (1976--2019) & 3109 & -0.820$^{***}$ & [-0.831, -0.808] & 0 & 0 & -0.854$^{***}$ & 0 \\
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& OOS (2020--2025) & 385 & -0.939$^{***}$ & [-0.950, -0.926] & 3.2e-179 & 2.88e-178 & -0.951$^{***}$ & 2.68e-196 \\
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& Combined (1976--2025) & 3494 & -0.815$^{***}$ & [-0.826, -0.804] & 0 & 0 & -0.844$^{***}$ & 0 \\
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\addlinespace
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Sunspot vs Seismicity & In-sample (1976--2019) & 3109 & -0.095$^{***}$ & [-0.130, -0.060] & 1.14e-07 & 1.02e-06 & -0.099$^{***}$ & 2.89e-07 \\
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& OOS (2020--2025) & 385 & -0.023 & [-0.123, 0.077] & 0.648 & 1 & -0.016 & 1 \\
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& Combined (1976--2025) & 3494 & -0.086$^{***}$ & [-0.119, -0.053] & 3.36e-07 & 3.03e-06 & -0.086$^{***}$ & 2.95e-06 \\
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\addlinespace
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\bottomrule
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\end{tabular}
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\bigskip
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\textit{Note: CR\textsubscript{p95} variant (station 95th percentile instead of median)
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gives similar structure; see \texttt{results/raw\_pairwise\_correlations.json}.}
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\end{table}
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