798b0744b5
2a — Replace physically invalid summed-Mw seismic metric with correct
log10(ΣE) where E=10^(1.5·Mw+4.8) J (Kanamori 1977). Updates
usgs.py (new seismic_energy_per_bin()), scripts 02/07/08.
Impact: r(+15d) raw 0.310→0.081, peak r 0.469→0.139; sinusoidal
BF 27.5→0.75 (constant model now preferred).
2b — HP λ derivation: λ_5 = 1600×(365/5)^4 ≈ 4.54×10^10 (Ravn & Uhlig
2002 rescaling); detrend robustness figure (HP/Butterworth/rolling
mean), all show r(+15d)<0.04.
2c — Neff comparison: Bartlett 2923, Bretherton 769, Monte Carlo 594;
MC 95% CI [-0.002, +0.158] straddles zero → raw r not significant
under most conservative estimate.
2d — Magnitude threshold (M≥4.5/5.0/6.0): r(+15d) range 0.050–0.079
(Δ=0.029 < 0.05), peak stable at τ=−525 d; no aftershock bias.
Paper (main.tex, refs.bib): update all numbers, add Kanamori/Bartlett/
Ravn–Uhlig refs, new sections for 2b–2d with figures and Neff table.
PDF recompiled (27 pages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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{
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"script": "scripts/02_homola_replication.py",
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"git_sha": "817d7ba",
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"seed": 42,
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"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T12:02:57.512719+00:00",
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"study_window": [
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"1976-01-01",
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"2019-12-31"
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],
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"bin_days": 5,
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"lag_range_days": [
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-1000,
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1000
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],
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"min_magnitude": 4.0,
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"nmdb_coverage_threshold": 0.6,
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"min_stations_requested": 3,
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"min_stations_effective": 3,
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"n_stations_used": 44,
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"n_cr_bins_total": 3215,
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"n_cr_bins_valid": 3215,
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"cr_data_coverage_pct": 100.03,
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"peak_lag_days": -525,
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"peak_lag_bins": -105,
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"peak_r": 0.138646,
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"naive_p_value": 8.079288e-15,
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"naive_sigma": 7.766,
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"n_pairs_at_peak": 3110,
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"r_at_tau_15d": 0.08148,
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"p_at_tau_15d": 3.768669e-06,
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"sigma_at_tau_15d": 4.624,
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"n_lags_scanned": 401,
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"note_significance": "Naive p from Pearson t-test treating 5-day bins as i.i.d. Not corrected for: (1) temporal autocorrelation, (2) shared solar-cycle trend, (3) scan over multiple lags. Expected to be grossly over-significant \u2014 corrected tests in phase 2."
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} |