817d7ba042
New script 09_raw_pairwise_correlations.py downloads OOS NMDB/USGS data and computes Pearson r and Spearman ρ (with Bonferroni correction) for all three variable pairs across in-sample, OOS, and combined windows. CR flux is represented by its per-bin station distribution (p5–p95 band with min–max overlay); seismic energy uses the physically correct E ∝ 10^(1.5·Mw) sum; sunspots shown with 365-day smoothed + raw spread. Key findings: CR vs sunspot r=-0.82 to -0.94 (Forbush decrease); CR vs seismicity r=0.057 raw (OOS: r=0.046, not significant); confounding triangle motivates HP-filter detrending analysis. Paper gains a new Section 4.1 "Raw Pairwise Correlations" with three scatter figures and a 9-test Bonferroni summary table; 24 pages total. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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| detrended_xcorr.png | ||
| full_series_with_envelope_fit.png | ||
| geo_distance_lag.png | ||
| geo_heatmap.png | ||
| homola_replication.png | ||
| oos_xcorr.png | ||
| raw_corr_combined.png | ||
| raw_corr_insample.png | ||
| raw_corr_oos.png | ||
| rolling_correlation_oos.png | ||
| stress_test.png | ||
