19-page paper covering the full analysis: in-sample replication, IAAFT surrogate testing, solar-cycle detrending, geographic localisation scan, pre-registered out-of-sample validation, and combined sinusoidal Bayes-factor analysis. Conclusion: the CR-seismic correlation is a solar-cycle artefact with no physical causal link. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
129 lines
5 KiB
Text
129 lines
5 KiB
Text
\begin{thebibliography}{17}
|
|
\providecommand{\natexlab}[1]{#1}
|
|
\providecommand{\url}[1]{\texttt{#1}}
|
|
\expandafter\ifx\csname urlstyle\endcsname\relax
|
|
\providecommand{\doi}[1]{doi: #1}\else
|
|
\providecommand{\doi}{doi: \begingroup \urlstyle{rm}\Url}\fi
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Aplin(2006)]{Aplin2005}
|
|
Karen~L. Aplin.
|
|
\newblock Atmospheric electrification in the solar system.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Surveys in Geophysics}, 27\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 63--108,
|
|
2006.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1007/s10712-005-0642-9}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Benjamini and Hochberg(1995)]{Benjamini1995}
|
|
Yoav Benjamini and Yosef Hochberg.
|
|
\newblock Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful
|
|
approach to multiple testing.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B},
|
|
57\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 289--300, 1995.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Bretherton et~al.(1999)Bretherton, Widmann, Dymnikov, Wallace, and
|
|
Blade]{Bretherton1999}
|
|
Christopher~S. Bretherton, Martin Widmann, Valentin~P. Dymnikov, John~M.
|
|
Wallace, and Ileana Blade.
|
|
\newblock The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying
|
|
field.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of Climate}, 12\penalty0 (7):\penalty0 1990--2009,
|
|
1999.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Cleveland et~al.(1990)Cleveland, Cleveland, McRae, and
|
|
Terpenning]{Cleveland1990}
|
|
Robert~B. Cleveland, William~S. Cleveland, Jean~E. McRae, and Irma Terpenning.
|
|
\newblock {STL}: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on {LOESS}.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of Official Statistics}, 6\penalty0 (1):\penalty0
|
|
3--73, 1990.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Hodrick and Prescott(1997)]{HP1997}
|
|
Robert~J. Hodrick and Edward~C. Prescott.
|
|
\newblock Postwar {U.S.} business cycles: an empirical investigation.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, 29\penalty0
|
|
(1):\penalty0 1--16, 1997.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.2307/2953682}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Homola et~al.(2023)]{Homola2023}
|
|
Piotr Homola et~al.
|
|
\newblock Indication of correlation between cosmic-ray flux and global
|
|
seismicity.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Remote Sensing}, 15\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 200, 2023.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.3390/rs15010200}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Jeffreys(1961)]{Jeffreys1961}
|
|
Harold Jeffreys.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Theory of Probability}.
|
|
\newblock Oxford University Press, 3rd edition, 1961.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Odintsov et~al.(2006)Odintsov, Boyarchuk, Georgieva, Kirov, and
|
|
Atanasov]{Odintsov2006}
|
|
Stanislav Odintsov, Kirill Boyarchuk, Katya Georgieva, Boian Kirov, and Dimitar
|
|
Atanasov.
|
|
\newblock Long-period trends in global seismic and geomagnetic activity and
|
|
their relation to solar activity.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Physics and Chemistry of the Earth}, 31\penalty0
|
|
(1--3):\penalty0 88--93, 2006.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1016/j.pce.2005.03.004}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Potgieter(2013)]{Potgieter2013}
|
|
Marius~S. Potgieter.
|
|
\newblock Solar modulation of cosmic rays.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Living Reviews in Solar Physics}, 10\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 3,
|
|
2013.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.12942/lrsp-2013-3}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Pulinets and Boyarchuk(2004)]{Pulinets2004}
|
|
Sergey Pulinets and Kirill Boyarchuk.
|
|
\newblock Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Springer}, 2004.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Schreiber and Schmitz(2000)]{Schreiber2000}
|
|
Thomas Schreiber and Andreas Schmitz.
|
|
\newblock Surrogate time series.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena}, 142\penalty0 (3--4):\penalty0
|
|
346--382, 2000.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1016/S0167-2789(00)00043-9}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[{SILSO World Data Center}(2024)]{SIDC2024}
|
|
{SILSO World Data Center}.
|
|
\newblock The international sunspot number.
|
|
\newblock Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.
|
|
\url{https://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles}, 2024.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Stoupel(1990)]{Stoupel1990}
|
|
Eliyahu Stoupel.
|
|
\newblock Relationship between solar and seismic activity.
|
|
\newblock \emph{International Journal of Biometeorology}, 34\penalty0
|
|
(4):\penalty0 231--235, 1990.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1007/BF01049646}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Tavares and Azevedo(2011)]{Tavares2011}
|
|
Mario Tavares and Angelo Azevedo.
|
|
\newblock Influences of solar cycles on earthquakes.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Pattern Recognition in Physics}, 1\penalty0 (1):\penalty0
|
|
1--11, 2011.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Theiler et~al.(1992)Theiler, Eubank, Longtin, Galdrikian, and
|
|
Farmer]{Theiler1992}
|
|
James Theiler, Stephen Eubank, Andr{\'e} Longtin, Bryan Galdrikian, and
|
|
J.~Doyne Farmer.
|
|
\newblock Testing for nonlinearity in time series: the method of surrogate
|
|
data.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena}, 58\penalty0 (1--4):\penalty0
|
|
77--94, 1992.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1016/0167-2789(92)90102-S}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[Urata and Tanimoto(2018)]{Urata2018}
|
|
Naoyuki Urata and Toshiro Tanimoto.
|
|
\newblock Correlation between cosmic rays and seismicity: a case study in
|
|
{Japan}.
|
|
\newblock \emph{Earth, Planets and Space}, 70\penalty0 (1):\penalty0 55, 2018.
|
|
\newblock \doi{10.1186/s40623-018-0826-5}.
|
|
|
|
\bibitem[{USGS Earthquake Hazards Program}(2024)]{USGS2024}
|
|
{USGS Earthquake Hazards Program}.
|
|
\newblock Earthquake catalogue via {FDSN} web service.
|
|
\newblock \url{https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/}, 2024.
|
|
|
|
\end{thebibliography}
|