cosmicraysandearthquakes/results/out_of_sample_metrics.json
root 9c226807c1 Add OOS and combined analysis results (scripts 07-08)
Out-of-sample (2020-2025): r(+15d)=+0.045, p=0.994 — not significant.
Combined (1976-2025): p=0.039 (2.1σ), sinusoid P=9.95 yr, BF=27.5.
Bayes factor strongly favours solar-cycle modulation over a constant,
confirming the correlation is driven by the shared ~10-year solar cycle
rather than a causal CR→seismic mechanism.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 07:34:24 +02:00

195 lines
No EOL
4.7 KiB
JSON

{
"git_sha": "unknown",
"avail_run_date": "unknown",
"study_start": "2020-01-01",
"study_end": "2025-04-29",
"T_valid": 390,
"n_stations": 35,
"n_surrogates": 100000,
"seed": 42,
"gpu_device": "Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)",
"r_at_15d": 0.044564,
"r_at_15d_hp": 0.026665,
"surr_p95_at_15d": 0.135623,
"p_global": 0.99404,
"p_global_linear_detrend": 1.0,
"sigma_surr": 0.007,
"peak_r": 0.110406,
"peak_lag_days": 135,
"n_eff": 274.5,
"n_rolling_windows": 16,
"n_significant_bh": 0,
"expected_fp": 0.0,
"T": 390,
"prediction_scores": {
"P1": "PASS",
"P2": "FAIL",
"P3": "AMBIGUOUS",
"P4": "AMBIGUOUS",
"F1": "TRIGGERED",
"F2": "not triggered",
"F3": "AMBIGUOUS"
},
"rolling_windows": [
{
"center_date": "2020-09-27",
"i0": 0,
"r": -0.020673974266789276,
"r_95_lo": -0.2384207768025597,
"r_95_hi": 0.19905195096046985,
"surr_p95": 0.24703209108565127,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 80.7
},
{
"center_date": "2020-12-26",
"i0": 18,
"r": -0.1596215601323441,
"r_95_lo": -0.3652401175794433,
"r_95_hi": 0.06084746948303837,
"surr_p95": 0.2420104634210208,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 81.0
},
{
"center_date": "2021-03-26",
"i0": 36,
"r": -0.10746670672666697,
"r_95_lo": -0.3483903115845773,
"r_95_hi": 0.14677605655326095,
"surr_p95": 0.2572000321729004,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 61.7
},
{
"center_date": "2021-06-24",
"i0": 54,
"r": -0.10098858847235519,
"r_95_lo": -0.3463312883265511,
"r_95_hi": 0.1572843431029865,
"surr_p95": 0.26650154565559175,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 59.9
},
{
"center_date": "2021-09-22",
"i0": 72,
"r": 0.01254431298486686,
"r_95_lo": -0.25387482798887767,
"r_95_hi": 0.27719423163204004,
"surr_p95": 0.2985998754816451,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 54.9
},
{
"center_date": "2021-12-21",
"i0": 90,
"r": 0.09250204283123152,
"r_95_lo": -0.20439300590462595,
"r_95_hi": 0.3738122683731473,
"surr_p95": 0.27676919680091644,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 45.7
},
{
"center_date": "2022-03-21",
"i0": 108,
"r": 0.14320771523610307,
"r_95_lo": -0.13729493377312108,
"r_95_hi": 0.40244693119546243,
"surr_p95": 0.28437908737796685,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 51.2
},
{
"center_date": "2022-06-19",
"i0": 126,
"r": 0.07509703884831592,
"r_95_lo": -0.13160095985883036,
"r_95_hi": 0.2755371203194297,
"surr_p95": 0.20138619969258406,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 92.1
},
{
"center_date": "2022-09-17",
"i0": 144,
"r": 0.2168176251787577,
"r_95_lo": 0.011086902245728723,
"r_95_hi": 0.404937880290396,
"surr_p95": 0.26527264789585464,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 90.8
},
{
"center_date": "2022-12-16",
"i0": 162,
"r": 0.16887990508570438,
"r_95_lo": -0.034272026977641694,
"r_95_hi": 0.3586296276290144,
"surr_p95": 0.19453090531555742,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 94.6
},
{
"center_date": "2023-03-16",
"i0": 180,
"r": -0.007919126521579136,
"r_95_lo": -0.24368819753335721,
"r_95_hi": 0.22873370185387817,
"surr_p95": 0.244394067315623,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 69.3
},
{
"center_date": "2023-06-14",
"i0": 198,
"r": -0.03593975038951865,
"r_95_lo": -0.27513801901583773,
"r_95_hi": 0.20744861668280118,
"surr_p95": 0.26934427417321,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 66.2
},
{
"center_date": "2023-09-12",
"i0": 216,
"r": 0.012229179706855697,
"r_95_lo": -0.2289007755823031,
"r_95_hi": 0.2519451642078741,
"surr_p95": 0.21335780781894043,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 66.9
},
{
"center_date": "2023-12-11",
"i0": 234,
"r": 0.06543567665343912,
"r_95_lo": -0.1901695876704142,
"r_95_hi": 0.3127329265694898,
"surr_p95": 0.2519767306793838,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 60.7
},
{
"center_date": "2024-03-10",
"i0": 252,
"r": 0.07906053491790431,
"r_95_lo": -0.1373503142101981,
"r_95_hi": 0.2882674790685488,
"surr_p95": 0.19634784346737047,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 84.2
},
{
"center_date": "2024-06-08",
"i0": 270,
"r": 0.029537138940926456,
"r_95_lo": -0.19206747741251445,
"r_95_hi": 0.24827571906628718,
"surr_p95": 0.1950217577409729,
"n_pairs": 106,
"n_eff": 79.5
}
]
}