Out-of-sample (2020-2025): r(+15d)=+0.045, p=0.994 — not significant. Combined (1976-2025): p=0.039 (2.1σ), sinusoid P=9.95 yr, BF=27.5. Bayes factor strongly favours solar-cycle modulation over a constant, confirming the correlation is driven by the shared ~10-year solar cycle rather than a causal CR→seismic mechanism. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
195 lines
No EOL
4.7 KiB
JSON
195 lines
No EOL
4.7 KiB
JSON
{
|
|
"git_sha": "unknown",
|
|
"avail_run_date": "unknown",
|
|
"study_start": "2020-01-01",
|
|
"study_end": "2025-04-29",
|
|
"T_valid": 390,
|
|
"n_stations": 35,
|
|
"n_surrogates": 100000,
|
|
"seed": 42,
|
|
"gpu_device": "Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)",
|
|
"r_at_15d": 0.044564,
|
|
"r_at_15d_hp": 0.026665,
|
|
"surr_p95_at_15d": 0.135623,
|
|
"p_global": 0.99404,
|
|
"p_global_linear_detrend": 1.0,
|
|
"sigma_surr": 0.007,
|
|
"peak_r": 0.110406,
|
|
"peak_lag_days": 135,
|
|
"n_eff": 274.5,
|
|
"n_rolling_windows": 16,
|
|
"n_significant_bh": 0,
|
|
"expected_fp": 0.0,
|
|
"T": 390,
|
|
"prediction_scores": {
|
|
"P1": "PASS",
|
|
"P2": "FAIL",
|
|
"P3": "AMBIGUOUS",
|
|
"P4": "AMBIGUOUS",
|
|
"F1": "TRIGGERED",
|
|
"F2": "not triggered",
|
|
"F3": "AMBIGUOUS"
|
|
},
|
|
"rolling_windows": [
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2020-09-27",
|
|
"i0": 0,
|
|
"r": -0.020673974266789276,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.2384207768025597,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.19905195096046985,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.24703209108565127,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 80.7
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2020-12-26",
|
|
"i0": 18,
|
|
"r": -0.1596215601323441,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.3652401175794433,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.06084746948303837,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.2420104634210208,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 81.0
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2021-03-26",
|
|
"i0": 36,
|
|
"r": -0.10746670672666697,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.3483903115845773,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.14677605655326095,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.2572000321729004,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 61.7
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2021-06-24",
|
|
"i0": 54,
|
|
"r": -0.10098858847235519,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.3463312883265511,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.1572843431029865,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.26650154565559175,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 59.9
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2021-09-22",
|
|
"i0": 72,
|
|
"r": 0.01254431298486686,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.25387482798887767,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.27719423163204004,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.2985998754816451,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 54.9
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2021-12-21",
|
|
"i0": 90,
|
|
"r": 0.09250204283123152,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.20439300590462595,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.3738122683731473,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.27676919680091644,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 45.7
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2022-03-21",
|
|
"i0": 108,
|
|
"r": 0.14320771523610307,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.13729493377312108,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.40244693119546243,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.28437908737796685,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 51.2
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2022-06-19",
|
|
"i0": 126,
|
|
"r": 0.07509703884831592,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.13160095985883036,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.2755371203194297,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.20138619969258406,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 92.1
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2022-09-17",
|
|
"i0": 144,
|
|
"r": 0.2168176251787577,
|
|
"r_95_lo": 0.011086902245728723,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.404937880290396,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.26527264789585464,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 90.8
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2022-12-16",
|
|
"i0": 162,
|
|
"r": 0.16887990508570438,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.034272026977641694,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.3586296276290144,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.19453090531555742,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 94.6
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2023-03-16",
|
|
"i0": 180,
|
|
"r": -0.007919126521579136,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.24368819753335721,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.22873370185387817,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.244394067315623,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 69.3
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2023-06-14",
|
|
"i0": 198,
|
|
"r": -0.03593975038951865,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.27513801901583773,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.20744861668280118,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.26934427417321,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 66.2
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2023-09-12",
|
|
"i0": 216,
|
|
"r": 0.012229179706855697,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.2289007755823031,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.2519451642078741,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.21335780781894043,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 66.9
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2023-12-11",
|
|
"i0": 234,
|
|
"r": 0.06543567665343912,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.1901695876704142,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.3127329265694898,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.2519767306793838,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 60.7
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2024-03-10",
|
|
"i0": 252,
|
|
"r": 0.07906053491790431,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.1373503142101981,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.2882674790685488,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.19634784346737047,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 84.2
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"center_date": "2024-06-08",
|
|
"i0": 270,
|
|
"r": 0.029537138940926456,
|
|
"r_95_lo": -0.19206747741251445,
|
|
"r_95_hi": 0.24827571906628718,
|
|
"surr_p95": 0.1950217577409729,
|
|
"n_pairs": 106,
|
|
"n_eff": 79.5
|
|
}
|
|
]
|
|
} |