4a Moderate principal conclusion: 'no statistically credible evidence'
replaced with 'no statistically robust evidence within tested frameworks'
plus clause acknowledging untested mechanisms (threshold effects,
nonlinear triggering, extreme-event coupling).
4b Fix independence-assumption framing: 'physically invalid seismic metric'
→ 'physically inappropriate'; separate claim about naive p-values now
reads 'statistically invalid under the violated serial-independence
assumption (autocorrelation inflates nominal sample size by 3–5×)'.
4c 3.9σ detrended peak no longer called 'marginal': figure caption and
nearby text now read 'nominally significant but sensitive to Neff
estimation, at a lag inconsistent with the claimed mechanism'.
4d CR terminology standardised: 'global CR index' defined precisely at
first use in Data section (dimensionless, station mean ≡ 1, ≥3 stations
per bin); 'CR flux' retained only for the physical quantity.
4e Geographic conclusion reframed: 'no local mechanism' replaced with
'inconsistent with simple wave-propagation or diffusion models, but does
not rule out instantaneous global coupling mechanisms (e.g. atmospheric
electric field modulation)'.
4f Bayes factor qualified: parenthetical after BF=0.75 notes the restricted
two-hypothesis model space and cites Kass & Raftery (1995).
4g OOS limitations expanded: explicit paragraph noting the 5-yr window
with no complete solar cycle, limited statistical power, and that
p_global=0.100 is consistent with—rather than strong evidence against
—the claim; OOS failure downweighted vs 44-yr in-sample analysis.
4h Confirmatory vs exploratory scope table added (Table tab:prereg_scope)
listing pre-specified parameters and which analyses were confirmatory
vs post-hoc exploratory.
4i Alternative solar-cycle confounds acknowledged in Discussion: geomagnetic
activity cycles and long-term seismic clustering added as alternative
explanations for the shared 10-year periodicity.
4j Fixed: 'Out-of-sample poos from script 08' removed from Limitations;
GitHub URL removed from abstract (kept in Data Availability only);
Discussion run-on sentences broken up.
4k Abstract rewritten to ≤250 words in five-part structure: prior claim,
data/methods (two sentences), key quantitative results, scoped
interpretation, one-sentence limitation. Causal language qualified.
Also adds KassRaftery1995 to refs.bib. PDF: 36 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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