root 556261f842 Add notebook, logs, and updated result reports

- CosmicRayNeutronQuakeAnalysis.ipynb: exploratory analysis notebook
- logs/: download and analysis run logs
- results/*_report.md: updated analysis reports reflecting corrected
  seismic metric and additional robustness checks

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-24 21:25:59 +02:00

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Combined Full-Series Analysis (1976–2025)

Generated: 2026-04-24T12:08:35Z Full window: 1976-01-01 → 2025-04-29 In-sample: 1976-01-01 → 2019-12-31 Out-of-sample: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29 GPU: CuPy not installed Surrogates: 10,000 per window

Does appending OOS data strengthen or weaken significance?

Window	p_global	σ_surrogate	peak lag
In-sample (1976–2019)	0.0010	3.29	-125 d
Out-of-sample (2020–2025)	0.1053	1.62	125 d
Combined (1976–2025)	0.0102	2.57	-125 d

Sinusoidal envelope fit

BF = 0.75 < 1: evidence FAVOURS constant model (no envelope)

Best-fit period: 13.00 years (constrained to [9, 13] years)

Parameter	Value
Period P	13.00 yr
Amplitude A	0.0473
Phase φ	3.43 rad
Baseline μ	0.0211
Model B BIC	-240.09
Model A BIC	-240.66
ΔBIC (A−B)	-0.57
Bayes factor (BF)	0.752

Station roster comparison (OOS window)

Roster	Description	Stations	p_global
A	In BOTH windows	?	N/A
B_oos	All OOS stations	?	N/A
C	New OOS-only	?	N/A

A real effect should appear consistently across all three rosters. Divergence (e.g., significant only in A) would suggest station-selection bias.

Figure

results/figs/full_series_with_envelope_fit.png

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