root 556261f842 Add notebook, logs, and updated result reports

- CosmicRayNeutronQuakeAnalysis.ipynb: exploratory analysis notebook
- logs/: download and analysis run logs
- results/*_report.md: updated analysis reports reflecting corrected
  seismic metric and additional robustness checks

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-24 21:25:59 +02:00

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Detrended CR–Seismic Cross-Correlation Analysis

Generated: 2026-04-24T12:15:00Z Study period: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31 Bin size: 5 days Surrogates: 10000 IAAFT Lag range: -1000…1000 days

Significance table

Method	N_eff	r(+15d)	σ_Breth(15d)	Peak r	Peak lag	σ_IAAFT
Raw	2916	0.0815	4.41	0.1386	-525 d	3.9σ
HP filter	3199	0.0266	1.5	0.1009	-125 d	3.9σ
STL	3031	0.0296	1.63	0.0934	-525 d	3.9σ
Sunspot regression	3056	0.0368	2.03	0.0919	-125 d	3.9σ

Interpretation

CAUTION: The following variants retain p_global < 0.05 after detrending: Raw, HP filter, STL, Sunspot regression. Further investigation required.

Methods

HP filter (Hodrick-Prescott)

λ = 1.29e+05 calibrated for 5-day bins targeting removal of variations longer than ~2000 days (Ravn & Uhlig 2002 scaling of the standard λ=1600).

STL decomposition

Period = 803 bins ≈ 11.0 years (11-year solar cycle). seasonal_jump=100, trend_jump=100 for computational efficiency. The residual component (x − trend − seasonal) is used.

Sunspot OLS regression

Contemporaneous + [0, 30, 90, 180]-day lagged sunspot numbers from SIDC WDC-SILSO. The fitted solar-proxy component is subtracted from each series.

Figure

results/figs/detrended_xcorr.png

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