798b0744b5
2a — Replace physically invalid summed-Mw seismic metric with correct
log10(ΣE) where E=10^(1.5·Mw+4.8) J (Kanamori 1977). Updates
usgs.py (new seismic_energy_per_bin()), scripts 02/07/08.
Impact: r(+15d) raw 0.310→0.081, peak r 0.469→0.139; sinusoidal
BF 27.5→0.75 (constant model now preferred).
2b — HP λ derivation: λ_5 = 1600×(365/5)^4 ≈ 4.54×10^10 (Ravn & Uhlig
2002 rescaling); detrend robustness figure (HP/Butterworth/rolling
mean), all show r(+15d)<0.04.
2c — Neff comparison: Bartlett 2923, Bretherton 769, Monte Carlo 594;
MC 95% CI [-0.002, +0.158] straddles zero → raw r not significant
under most conservative estimate.
2d — Magnitude threshold (M≥4.5/5.0/6.0): r(+15d) range 0.050–0.079
(Δ=0.029 < 0.05), peak stable at τ=−525 d; no aftershock bias.
Paper (main.tex, refs.bib): update all numbers, add Kanamori/Bartlett/
Ravn–Uhlig refs, new sections for 2b–2d with figures and Neff table.
PDF recompiled (27 pages).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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795 B
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30 lines
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795 B
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{
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"N_raw": 3214,
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"r_at_tau_plus15d": 0.07862,
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"methods": {
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"Bartlett_1946_first_order": {
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"Neff": 2923.1,
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"CI_95_r": [
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0.04248258115478359,
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0.11454542812932819
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],
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"note": "N\u00b7(1\u2212\u03c1\u2081\u2093\u03c1\u2081\u1d67)/(1+\u03c1\u2081\u2093\u03c1\u2081\u1d67) [current implementation]"
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},
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"Bretherton_1999_full_sum": {
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"Neff": 769.4,
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"CI_95_r": [
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0.007981897773749757,
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0.14847087395884573
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],
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"note": "N / (1 + 2\u03a3_k \u03c1_xx(k)\u03c1_yy(k)) K=200 lags"
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},
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"Monte_Carlo_phase_surrogates": {
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"Neff": 593.8,
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"CI_95_r": [
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-0.0018607729923741843,
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0.15808238828278748
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],
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"note": "1/Var(r_null) from 1000 phase-randomised y series"
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}
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}
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} |