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cosmicraysandearthquakes/results/geo_localisation_report.md
root abf00b89f4 Add analysis results: scripts 01-05 outputs 
Benchmark, Homola replication, stress test, detrended analysis, and
geographic localisation results including figures. Pre-registration
and data availability already committed separately.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 00:45:17 +02:00

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Geographic Localisation of CR–Seismic Cross-Correlation

Generated: 2026-04-21T23:59:51Z Study period: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31 Bin size: 5 days Lag range: -200…200 days (step 5 d) Surrogates: 1000 × phase-randomisation (GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)) Min events per cell: 100 Grid: 10°×10° (648 cells total) Stations loaded: 44 Total (station, cell) tests: 7,037 BH q: 0.05

Main finding

455 significant pairs (BH q=0.05), barely exceeding the expected false-discovery count (351.9). This marginal excess does not constitute reliable evidence for geographic localisation.

Distance–lag analysis (all 7,037 pairs)

The OLS regression of τ* on d is not significant (β = -0.45 d/1000 km, p = 0.2114). No distance dependence in optimal lag is detected — consistent with H_CR (CR isotropy).

Regression slope (per 1000 km) R² p-value
τ*(s,g) ~ d -0.450 d 0.0002 0.2114
r* (s,g) ~ d 0.00073

Significant pairs (BH q=0.05)

  • Total significant pairs: 455 / 7,037
  • Expected false discoveries: 351.9
  • Significant cells: 177
  • Stations contributing significant pairs: 32

Scientific context

Homola et al. (2023) report the global CR–seismic correlation disappears in location-specific analyses, which would be puzzling for any mechanistic hypothesis. This analysis tests that claim quantitatively by controlling the false-discovery rate across all 7,037 geographic pairs.

Under H_CR (cosmic rays are the causal agent, and they are near-isotropic):

  • No geographic localisation expected.
  • τ*(s,g) should be independent of d(s,g).
  • |r*(s,g)| should be independent of d(s,g).

Under H_local (ionospheric, radon, or EM propagation mechanism):

  • Nearby (s, g) pairs should show stronger or differently-lagged correlations.
  • τ*(s,g) or |r*(s,g)| should vary systematically with d(s,g).

Figures

  • results/figs/geo_heatmap.png — −log₁₀(min p) per cell + BH-significant stations
  • results/figs/geo_distance_lag.png — distance vs peak lag and distance vs |r|