fc859d5dff
4a Moderate principal conclusion: 'no statistically credible evidence'
replaced with 'no statistically robust evidence within tested frameworks'
plus clause acknowledging untested mechanisms (threshold effects,
nonlinear triggering, extreme-event coupling).
4b Fix independence-assumption framing: 'physically invalid seismic metric'
→ 'physically inappropriate'; separate claim about naive p-values now
reads 'statistically invalid under the violated serial-independence
assumption (autocorrelation inflates nominal sample size by 3–5×)'.
4c 3.9σ detrended peak no longer called 'marginal': figure caption and
nearby text now read 'nominally significant but sensitive to Neff
estimation, at a lag inconsistent with the claimed mechanism'.
4d CR terminology standardised: 'global CR index' defined precisely at
first use in Data section (dimensionless, station mean ≡ 1, ≥3 stations
per bin); 'CR flux' retained only for the physical quantity.
4e Geographic conclusion reframed: 'no local mechanism' replaced with
'inconsistent with simple wave-propagation or diffusion models, but does
not rule out instantaneous global coupling mechanisms (e.g. atmospheric
electric field modulation)'.
4f Bayes factor qualified: parenthetical after BF=0.75 notes the restricted
two-hypothesis model space and cites Kass & Raftery (1995).
4g OOS limitations expanded: explicit paragraph noting the 5-yr window
with no complete solar cycle, limited statistical power, and that
p_global=0.100 is consistent with—rather than strong evidence against
—the claim; OOS failure downweighted vs 44-yr in-sample analysis.
4h Confirmatory vs exploratory scope table added (Table tab:prereg_scope)
listing pre-specified parameters and which analyses were confirmatory
vs post-hoc exploratory.
4i Alternative solar-cycle confounds acknowledged in Discussion: geomagnetic
activity cycles and long-term seismic clustering added as alternative
explanations for the shared 10-year periodicity.
4j Fixed: 'Out-of-sample poos from script 08' removed from Limitations;
GitHub URL removed from abstract (kept in Data Availability only);
Discussion run-on sentences broken up.
4k Abstract rewritten to ≤250 words in five-part structure: prior claim,
data/methods (two sentences), key quantitative results, scoped
interpretation, one-sentence limitation. Causal language qualified.
Also adds KassRaftery1995 to refs.bib. PDF: 36 pages.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
255 lines
7.3 KiB
BibTeX
255 lines
7.3 KiB
BibTeX
@misc{Homola2023,
|
|
author = {Homola, Piotr and others},
|
|
title = {Indication of Correlation between Cosmic-Ray Flux and
|
|
Global Seismicity},
|
|
year = {2022},
|
|
eprint = {2204.12310},
|
|
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
|
|
primaryClass = {physics.geo-ph},
|
|
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.12310},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Bretherton1999,
|
|
author = {Bretherton, Christopher S. and Widmann, Martin and
|
|
Dymnikov, Valentin P. and Wallace, John M. and Blade, Ileana},
|
|
title = {The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a
|
|
time-varying field},
|
|
journal = {Journal of Climate},
|
|
year = {1999},
|
|
volume = {12},
|
|
number = {7},
|
|
pages = {1990--2009},
|
|
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1990:TENOSD>2.0.CO;2},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Theiler1992,
|
|
author = {Theiler, James and Eubank, Stephen and Longtin, Andr{\'e} and
|
|
Galdrikian, Bryan and Farmer, J. Doyne},
|
|
title = {Testing for nonlinearity in time series: the method of
|
|
surrogate data},
|
|
journal = {Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena},
|
|
year = {1992},
|
|
volume = {58},
|
|
number = {1--4},
|
|
pages = {77--94},
|
|
doi = {10.1016/0167-2789(92)90102-S},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Schreiber2000,
|
|
author = {Schreiber, Thomas and Schmitz, Andreas},
|
|
title = {Surrogate time series},
|
|
journal = {Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena},
|
|
year = {2000},
|
|
volume = {142},
|
|
number = {3--4},
|
|
pages = {346--382},
|
|
doi = {10.1016/S0167-2789(00)00043-9},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Benjamini1995,
|
|
author = {Benjamini, Yoav and Hochberg, Yosef},
|
|
title = {Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful
|
|
approach to multiple testing},
|
|
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B},
|
|
year = {1995},
|
|
volume = {57},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {289--300},
|
|
doi = {10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{HP1997,
|
|
author = {Hodrick, Robert J. and Prescott, Edward C.},
|
|
title = {Postwar {U.S.} business cycles: an empirical investigation},
|
|
journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking},
|
|
year = {1997},
|
|
volume = {29},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {1--16},
|
|
doi = {10.2307/2953682},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Cleveland1990,
|
|
author = {Cleveland, Robert B. and Cleveland, William S. and
|
|
McRae, Jean E. and Terpenning, Irma},
|
|
title = {{STL}: A seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on {LOESS}},
|
|
journal = {Journal of Official Statistics},
|
|
year = {1990},
|
|
volume = {6},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {3--73},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Potgieter2013,
|
|
author = {Potgieter, Marius S.},
|
|
title = {Solar modulation of cosmic rays},
|
|
journal = {Living Reviews in Solar Physics},
|
|
year = {2013},
|
|
volume = {10},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {3},
|
|
doi = {10.12942/lrsp-2013-3},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Odintsov2006,
|
|
author = {Odintsov, Stanislav and Boyarchuk, Kirill and Georgieva, Katya and
|
|
Kirov, Boian and Atanasov, Dimitar},
|
|
title = {Long-period trends in global seismic and geomagnetic activity and
|
|
their relation to solar activity},
|
|
journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth},
|
|
year = {2006},
|
|
volume = {31},
|
|
number = {1--3},
|
|
pages = {88--93},
|
|
doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2005.03.004},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Tavares2011,
|
|
author = {Tavares, Mario and Azevedo, Angelo},
|
|
title = {Influences of solar cycles on earthquakes},
|
|
journal = {Pattern Recognition in Physics},
|
|
year = {2011},
|
|
volume = {1},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {1--11},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Stoupel1990,
|
|
author = {Stoupel, Eliyahu},
|
|
title = {Relationship between solar and seismic activity},
|
|
journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
|
|
year = {1990},
|
|
volume = {34},
|
|
number = {4},
|
|
pages = {231--235},
|
|
doi = {10.1007/BF01049646},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Urata2018,
|
|
author = {Urata, Naoyuki and Tanimoto, Toshiro},
|
|
title = {Correlation between cosmic rays and seismicity: a case study
|
|
in {Japan}},
|
|
journal = {Earth, Planets and Space},
|
|
year = {2018},
|
|
volume = {70},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {55},
|
|
doi = {10.1186/s40623-018-0826-5},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Pulinets2004,
|
|
author = {Pulinets, Sergey and Boyarchuk, Kirill},
|
|
title = {Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes},
|
|
journal = {Springer},
|
|
year = {2004},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@book{Jeffreys1961,
|
|
author = {Jeffreys, Harold},
|
|
title = {Theory of Probability},
|
|
edition = {3rd},
|
|
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
|
|
year = {1961},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Aplin2005,
|
|
author = {Aplin, Karen L.},
|
|
title = {Atmospheric electrification in the solar system},
|
|
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
|
|
year = {2006},
|
|
volume = {27},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {63--108},
|
|
doi = {10.1007/s10712-005-0642-9},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@misc{USGS2024,
|
|
author = {{USGS Earthquake Hazards Program}},
|
|
title = {Earthquake catalogue via {FDSN} web service},
|
|
year = {2024},
|
|
howpublished = {\url{https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/}},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@misc{SIDC2024,
|
|
author = {{SILSO World Data Center}},
|
|
title = {The International Sunspot Number},
|
|
year = {2024},
|
|
howpublished = {Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels.
|
|
\url{https://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles}},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@misc{NMDB2024,
|
|
author = {{NMDB Consortium}},
|
|
title = {Neutron Monitor Database},
|
|
year = {2024},
|
|
howpublished = {\url{https://www.nmdb.eu}},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{KassRaftery1995,
|
|
author = {Kass, Robert E. and Raftery, Adrian E.},
|
|
title = {Bayes Factors},
|
|
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
|
|
year = {1995},
|
|
volume = {90},
|
|
number = {430},
|
|
pages = {773--795},
|
|
doi = {10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Kraskov2004,
|
|
author = {Kraskov, Alexander and St{\"o}gbauer, Harald and Grassberger, Peter},
|
|
title = {Estimating mutual information},
|
|
journal = {Physical Review E},
|
|
year = {2004},
|
|
volume = {69},
|
|
number = {6},
|
|
pages = {066138},
|
|
doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066138},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{GardnerKnopoff1974,
|
|
author = {Gardner, J. K. and Knopoff, Leon},
|
|
title = {Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern {California},
|
|
with aftershocks removed, {Poissonian}?},
|
|
journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America},
|
|
year = {1974},
|
|
volume = {64},
|
|
number = {5},
|
|
pages = {1363--1367},
|
|
doi = {10.1785/BSSA0640051363},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Kanamori1977,
|
|
author = {Kanamori, Hiroo},
|
|
title = {The energy release in great earthquakes},
|
|
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
|
|
year = {1977},
|
|
volume = {82},
|
|
number = {20},
|
|
pages = {2981--2987},
|
|
doi = {10.1029/JB082i020p02981},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{Bartlett1946,
|
|
author = {Bartlett, M. S.},
|
|
title = {On the theoretical specification and sampling properties of
|
|
autocorrelated time-series},
|
|
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Supplement)},
|
|
year = {1946},
|
|
volume = {8},
|
|
number = {1},
|
|
pages = {27--41},
|
|
doi = {10.2307/2983611},
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
@article{RahnUhlig2002,
|
|
author = {Ravn, Morten O. and Uhlig, Harald},
|
|
title = {On adjusting the {Hodrick--Prescott} filter for the frequency
|
|
of observations},
|
|
journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
|
|
year = {2002},
|
|
volume = {84},
|
|
number = {2},
|
|
pages = {371--376},
|
|
doi = {10.1162/003465302317411604},
|
|
}
|