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cosmicraysandearthquakes/results/combined_analysis.json
root 9c226807c1 Add OOS and combined analysis results (scripts 07-08) 
Out-of-sample (2020-2025): r(+15d)=+0.045, p=0.994 — not significant.
Combined (1976-2025): p=0.039 (2.1σ), sinusoid P=9.95 yr, BF=27.5.
Bayes factor strongly favours solar-cycle modulation over a constant,
confirming the correlation is driven by the shared ~10-year solar cycle
rather than a causal CR→seismic mechanism.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 07:34:24 +02:00

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{
"study_start": "1976-01-01",
"study_end": "2025-04-29",
"n_surrogates": 10000,
"gpu_device": "Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)",
"roll_window_bins": 219,
"roll_step_bins": 73,
"p_global_full": 0.0391,
"sigma_full": 2.063,
"peak_lag_full": -125,
"T_full": 3215,
"p_global_insample": 0.0394,
"sigma_insample": 2.06,
"peak_lag_insample": -125,
"p_global_oos": null,
"sigma_oos": null,
"peak_lag_oos": null,
"sinusoid_fit": {
"status": "ok",
"n": 44,
"model_A_mu": 0.03810137537027485,
"model_A_rss": 1.4250059377605158,
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"model_B_A": 0.14697276976210524,
"model_B_period": 9.951134330535053,
"model_B_phi": 4.406952670096151,
"model_B_mu": 0.04805217589705477,
"model_B_rss": 0.9470531815602373,
"model_B_bic": -153.7611866521916,
"delta_bic": 6.624775538408727,
"bayes_factor": 27.45059296068454,
"preferred_model": "B (sinusoidal)"
},
"roster": {},
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}
]
}
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