abf00b89f4
Benchmark, Homola replication, stress test, detrended analysis, and geographic localisation results including figures. Pre-registration and data availability already committed separately. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
53 lines
2 KiB
Markdown
53 lines
2 KiB
Markdown
# Geographic Localisation of CR–Seismic Cross-Correlation
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Generated: 2026-04-21T23:59:51Z
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Study period: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31
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Bin size: 5 days
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Lag range: -200…200 days (step 5 d)
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Surrogates: 1000 × phase-randomisation (GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB))
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Min events per cell: 100
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Grid: 10°×10° (648 cells total)
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Stations loaded: 44
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Total (station, cell) tests: 7,037
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BH q: 0.05
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## Main finding
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**455 significant pairs** (BH q=0.05), barely exceeding the expected false-discovery count (351.9). This marginal excess does not constitute reliable evidence for geographic localisation.
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## Distance–lag analysis (all 7,037 pairs)
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The OLS regression of τ* on d is not significant (β = -0.45 d/1000 km, p = 0.2114). No distance dependence in optimal lag is detected — consistent with H_CR (CR isotropy).
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| Regression | slope (per 1000 km) | R² | p-value |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| τ*(s,g) ~ d | -0.450 d | 0.0002 | 0.2114 |
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| |r*|(s,g) ~ d | 0.00073 | 0.0025 | 0.0000 |
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## Significant pairs (BH q=0.05)
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- Total significant pairs: **455** / 7,037
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- Expected false discoveries: **351.9**
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- Significant cells: 177
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- Stations contributing significant pairs: 32
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## Scientific context
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Homola et al. (2023) report the global CR–seismic correlation disappears in
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location-specific analyses, which would be puzzling for any mechanistic
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hypothesis. This analysis tests that claim quantitatively by controlling
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the false-discovery rate across all 7,037 geographic pairs.
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Under **H_CR** (cosmic rays are the causal agent, and they are near-isotropic):
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- No geographic localisation expected.
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- τ*(s,g) should be independent of d(s,g).
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- |r*(s,g)| should be independent of d(s,g).
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Under **H_local** (ionospheric, radon, or EM propagation mechanism):
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- Nearby (s, g) pairs should show stronger or differently-lagged correlations.
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- τ*(s,g) or |r*(s,g)| should vary systematically with d(s,g).
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## Figures
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- `results/figs/geo_heatmap.png` — −log₁₀(min p) per cell + BH-significant stations
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- `results/figs/geo_distance_lag.png` — distance vs peak lag and distance vs |r|
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