root 9c226807c1 Add OOS and combined analysis results (scripts 07-08)

Out-of-sample (2020-2025): r(+15d)=+0.045, p=0.994 — not significant.
Combined (1976-2025): p=0.039 (2.1σ), sinusoid P=9.95 yr, BF=27.5.
Bayes factor strongly favours solar-cycle modulation over a constant,
confirming the correlation is driven by the shared ~10-year solar cycle
rather than a causal CR→seismic mechanism.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-24 07:34:24 +02:00

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Out-of-Sample Validation Report — Homola et al. 2023

Generated: 2026-04-23T22:56:38Z Git SHA: unknown OOS window: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29 Analysis run date: 2026-04-23 Data availability check: unknown

Overall verdict

AMBIGUOUS: Mixed results; insufficient evidence to confirm or refute.

Prediction scorecard

Criterion	Outcome
P1	PASS
P2	FAIL
P3	AMBIGUOUS
P4	AMBIGUOUS
F1	TRIGGERED
F2	not triggered
F3	AMBIGUOUS

Key numerical results

Metric	OOS value	In-sample baseline
r(τ = +15 d) raw	+0.0446	+0.3099 (solar-cycle confounded)
r(τ = +15 d) HP-detrended	+0.0267	+0.0411
Surrogate 95th pct at τ=+15 d	0.1356	(not computed in-sample at this lag)
p_global (phase surrogates)	0.9940	1.000 (in-sample raw, not significant)
σ_surrogate	0.01	n/a
Dominant peak lag	+135 d	−525 d
Dominant peak \|r\|	0.1104	0.469
BH-significant pairs (geo)	0	455 (in-sample)
Expected FP (geo, BH q=0.05)	0.0	351.9 (in-sample)
Surrogate count	100,000	10,000 (in-sample)

Interpretation notes

The OOS window (2020-01-01–2025-04-29) spans approximately 5 years — less than one full 11-year solar cycle. This has two implications:

Solar-cycle detrending is less effective over sub-cycle windows. Linear and sunspot-regression detrending are used instead of HP/STL, which require series longer than the target period.
Statistical power is lower than in-sample (T ≈ 3215 bins vs T ≈ 390 bins OOS). A genuine effect of the same magnitude as the in-sample HP-detrended signal (r ≈ 0.04) would require a very large n_surr to detect reliably.

Methodological notes

Pre-registration file: results/prereg_predictions.md (timestamps confirm it was written before any OOS analysis was run)
GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)
Surrogates: phase-randomisation (100,000)
Lag range: ±200 days

Figures

results/figs/oos_xcorr.png — r(τ) with surrogate envelopes
results/figs/rolling_correlation_oos.png — rolling r(τ=+15 d)

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