19-page paper covering the full analysis: in-sample replication,
IAAFT surrogate testing, solar-cycle detrending, geographic localisation
scan, pre-registered out-of-sample validation, and combined sinusoidal
Bayes-factor analysis. Conclusion: the CR-seismic correlation is a
solar-cycle artefact with no physical causal link.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Out-of-sample (2020-2025): r(+15d)=+0.045, p=0.994 — not significant.
Combined (1976-2025): p=0.039 (2.1σ), sinusoid P=9.95 yr, BF=27.5.
Bayes factor strongly favours solar-cycle modulation over a constant,
confirming the correlation is driven by the shared ~10-year solar cycle
rather than a causal CR→seismic mechanism.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
surrogates_gpu.py: auto_batch_size was missing the irfft output buffer
(batch × T × 4 bytes) from its per-surrogate VRAM estimate, causing OOM
on long series (T≈3600). Added the missing term.
08_combined_timeseries.py: write_combined_report crashed with TypeError
when in-sample load failed (keys absent → None). Added _fv() helper that
formats None values as "N/A" instead of failing.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Benchmark, Homola replication, stress test, detrended analysis, and
geographic localisation results including figures. Pre-registration
and data availability already committed separately.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
When load_usgs returns an empty DataFrame it has a RangeIndex, causing
resample("1D") to throw TypeError. Guard with an isinstance check and
fall back to a zero series so the rest of the pipeline continues.
Also aligns expected usgs-dir path with what script 06 wrote.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Pre-registered predictions written BEFORE any OOS analysis data is loaded
(UTC 2026-04-22T00:44:30). OOS window: 2020-01-01 to 2025-04-29,
constrained by NMDB reliable end date. 30 NMDB stations pass coverage
threshold in this window.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Scripts 01-08 implement the complete cosmic-ray/earthquake correlation
analysis from data ingestion through out-of-sample validation and
combined timeseries sinusoid fitting.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
