root abf00b89f4 Add analysis results: scripts 01-05 outputs

Benchmark, Homola replication, stress test, detrended analysis, and
geographic localisation results including figures. Pre-registration
and data availability already committed separately.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-24 00:45:17 +02:00

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Detrended CR–Seismic Cross-Correlation Analysis

Generated: 2026-04-21T10:31:37Z Study period: 1976-01-01 – 2019-12-31 Bin size: 5 days Surrogates: 10000 IAAFT Lag range: -1000…1000 days

Significance table

Method	N_eff	r(+15d)	σ_Breth(15d)	Peak r	Peak lag	p_global (IAAFT)	σ_IAAFT
Raw	1169	0.3099	10.85	0.4691	-525 d	1.0000	0.0σ
HP filter	3027	0.0411	2.26	0.3131	-525 d	0.0000	3.9σ
STL	1880	0.1098	4.77	0.1554	-125 d	0.0000	3.9σ
Sunspot regression	1850	0.1570	6.79	0.2657	-525 d	0.0000	3.9σ

Interpretation

CAUTION: The following variants retain p_global < 0.05 after detrending: HP filter, STL, Sunspot regression. Further investigation required.

Methods

HP filter (Hodrick-Prescott)

λ = 1.29e+05 calibrated for 5-day bins targeting removal of variations longer than ~2000 days (Ravn & Uhlig 2002 scaling of the standard λ=1600).

STL decomposition

Period = 803 bins ≈ 11.0 years (11-year solar cycle). seasonal_jump=100, trend_jump=100 for computational efficiency. The residual component (x − trend − seasonal) is used.

Sunspot OLS regression

Contemporaneous + [0, 30, 90, 180]-day lagged sunspot numbers from SIDC WDC-SILSO. The fitted solar-proxy component is subtracted from each series.

Figure

results/figs/detrended_xcorr.png

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