root 9c226807c1 Add OOS and combined analysis results (scripts 07-08)

Out-of-sample (2020-2025): r(+15d)=+0.045, p=0.994 — not significant.
Combined (1976-2025): p=0.039 (2.1σ), sinusoid P=9.95 yr, BF=27.5.
Bayes factor strongly favours solar-cycle modulation over a constant,
confirming the correlation is driven by the shared ~10-year solar cycle
rather than a causal CR→seismic mechanism.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-04-24 07:34:24 +02:00

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Combined Full-Series Analysis (1976–2025)

Generated: 2026-04-24T05:33:39Z Full window: 1976-01-01 → 2025-04-29 In-sample: 1976-01-01 → 2019-12-31 Out-of-sample: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29 GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB) Surrogates: 10,000 per window

Does appending OOS data strengthen or weaken significance?

Window	p_global	σ_surrogate	peak lag
In-sample (1976–2019)	0.0394	2.06	-125 d
Out-of-sample (2020–2025)	N/A	N/A	None d
Combined (1976–2025)	0.0391	2.06	-125 d

Sinusoidal envelope fit

BF = 27.45: strong evidence for sinusoidal envelope

Best-fit period: 9.95 years (constrained to [9, 13] years)

Parameter	Value
Period P	9.95 yr
Amplitude A	0.1470
Phase φ	4.41 rad
Baseline μ	0.0481
Model B BIC	-153.76
Model A BIC	-147.14
ΔBIC (A−B)	6.62
Bayes factor (BF)	27.451

Station roster comparison (OOS window)

Roster	Description	Stations	p_global
A	In BOTH windows	?	N/A
B_oos	All OOS stations	?	N/A
C	New OOS-only	?	N/A

A real effect should appear consistently across all three rosters. Divergence (e.g., significant only in A) would suggest station-selection bias.

Figure

results/figs/full_series_with_envelope_fit.png

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