9c226807c1
Out-of-sample (2020-2025): r(+15d)=+0.045, p=0.994 — not significant. Combined (1976-2025): p=0.039 (2.1σ), sinusoid P=9.95 yr, BF=27.5. Bayes factor strongly favours solar-cycle modulation over a constant, confirming the correlation is driven by the shared ~10-year solar cycle rather than a causal CR→seismic mechanism. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
47 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
47 lines
1.3 KiB
Markdown
# Combined Full-Series Analysis (1976–2025)
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Generated: 2026-04-24T05:33:39Z
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Full window: 1976-01-01 → 2025-04-29
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In-sample: 1976-01-01 → 2019-12-31
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Out-of-sample: 2020-01-01 → 2025-04-29
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GPU: Tesla M40 (12.0 GB)
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Surrogates: 10,000 per window
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## Does appending OOS data strengthen or weaken significance?
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| Window | p_global | σ_surrogate | peak lag |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| In-sample (1976–2019) | 0.0394 | 2.06 | -125 d |
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| Out-of-sample (2020–2025) | N/A | N/A | None d |
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| Combined (1976–2025) | 0.0391 | 2.06 | -125 d |
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## Sinusoidal envelope fit
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BF = 27.45: strong evidence for sinusoidal envelope
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Best-fit period: **9.95 years** (constrained to [9, 13] years)
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| Parameter | Value |
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|---|---|
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| Period P | 9.95 yr |
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| Amplitude A | 0.1470 |
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| Phase φ | 4.41 rad |
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| Baseline μ | 0.0481 |
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| Model B BIC | -153.76 |
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| Model A BIC | -147.14 |
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| ΔBIC (A−B) | 6.62 |
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| Bayes factor (BF) | 27.451 |
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## Station roster comparison (OOS window)
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| Roster | Description | Stations | p_global |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| A | In BOTH windows | ? | N/A |
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| B_oos | All OOS stations | ? | N/A |
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| C | New OOS-only | ? | N/A |
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A real effect should appear consistently across all three rosters.
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Divergence (e.g., significant only in A) would suggest station-selection bias.
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## Figure
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`results/figs/full_series_with_envelope_fit.png`
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